POLL SEES CHANGE, BUT ELECTION IS LONG WAY OFF

A new poll that assesses the mood of American voters a full year before the 2000 presidential election shows some significant shifts from five years ago when Republicans were taking control of Congress as a Democratic president hunkered down to battle a series of missteps that ultimately resulted in impeachment.

The poll, by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, indicates Americans are more moderate than in 1994, less cynical about government and more supportive of Democratic positions. But, as the pollsters observe, the presidential candidate right now who seems to be flourishing in this moderate, less-cynical environment is Republican George W. Bush, governor of Texas.

And, the pollsters say, the two Democratic front-runners face the most obstacles in dealing with the voters. Former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley still has to work up some sort of identity and familiarity among voters, and Vice President Al Gore must find a way to disentangle himself from Bill Clinton's baggage.

One thing that both candidates and voters knew before the poll was the there is a soaring mood of optimism right now, thanks almost entirely to the roaring economy. How quickly everything can change.

While analysts are reluctant to call the current stock market a downturn they prefer terms like "stagnant" or "correction" the meteoric rise of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and other market indicators has leveled off.

Besides the economy, there any number of changes, events and crises that could drastically swing the mood of Americans to one side or the other.

Consider President Bush's re-election campaign of 1992. When Iraqis invaded Kuwait in August 1990, Bush's political fortunes rested largely on his record as a caretaker of the Reagan legacy. And when the Persian Gulf War bombing began in January 1991, there were critics from all camps who saw nothing but body bags and ugly memories of Vietnam. But by the time Saddam Hussein accepted a formal cease-fire in April 1991, the nation was euphoric and President Bush's chances for re-election seemed almost too great to overcome.

But between April 1991 and Election Day in November 1992, a lot of things changed, mostly perceptions. And Bill Clinton started packing to move to Pennsylvania Avenue.

No one has a reliable crystal ball, not even the Pew Research Center pollsters. The new poll's snapshot of today's mood is interesting. But does it foretell the future? Only the ballots on Nov. 7, 2000, can be counted on for accuracy.