LETTERS: WE MUST DECIDE HOW TO RESPOND

To the editor:

Kevin Trenberth is head of the climate analysis section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. His response to the data: "The case that the climate is changing in part in response to human activities is building stronger with every passing year." Meanwhile, Thomas Karl, senior scientist at the national climate data center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in North Carolina, basing his analysis on techniques revealing historic temperature patterns exhibited in sea sediments, tree rings and glacier ice cores, pointed out that the 1990s have been the warmest decade in 600 years.

The data to which these scientists were responding reveal:* 1998 will be the warmest year since temperature records were first kept (1860).* The temperature increase in five-year mean temperatures since 1975 is now almost 1 degree Fahrenheit.* The southern edge of the Arctic ice pack is more than 100 miles closer to the North Pole than normal.* Glaciers are retreating.* Coral reefs have been more bleached (thought to be a temperature effect) over the last two years than ever.* Sea level is rising.* At 58.64 degrees Fahrenheit, the global temperature during the first nine months of 1998 exceeded long-term averages for this period by 1.24 degrees.* Prior to the most recent warming trend, the temperature increase since the peak of the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, when mid-Missouri was sub-arctic spruce-fir forest, was only 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit.

Meanwhile, the record-breaking warm spell in the U.S. Midwest during late fall and the 60 days of over 100-degree weather experienced in Dallas are consistent with climate model predictions that suggest more frequent regional climatic extremes as global warming occurs. Similarly, the pattern of increased global evaporation we have witnessed is predicted to promote both extended arid areas and more extreme storms.

Belittling the potential hazards, trivializing potential consequences and dismissing the entire episode, Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia, one of the most vocal global warming skeptics, responded somewhat sarcastically: "But how have you suffered? I hear bitter complaints that (people) really miss having to fill up the heating fuel tank."It is possible that all the evidence merely represents a phase in some natural cycle over which humans have no control. It is also possible, as many atmospheric scientists suggest, that human activity is promoting the climate change we are witnessing. As stewards of a planet that future generations will inherit, we must decide how we wish to respond to the alarms that are being sounded. We can deny or ignore them and risk promoting a catastrophe that we could have averted, or we can reduce those activities that could be causing the problem. Through our elected representatives in Washington, we will decide.

After evaluating the data, James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, suggested, "There should no longer be an issue about whether global warming is occurring, but what is the rate of warming, and what should be done about it."Folks whose living is dependant on current climate patterns (farmers and foresters) should be particularly concerned at the direction the evidence is pointing since continuation of the trend would threaten their very livelihood. It seems to me that representatives of such constituencies (whether organization officers or elected officials) are not behaving responsibly when they try to undermine attempts to minimize those activities that might promote global warming.

ALAN R.P. JOURNET

Cape Girardeau