When is a recession not a recession? When is an economic recovery equal to that designation? The bad news for President Bush is that reports of an improving economy didn't surface in time to help his re-election efforts. The confusion exists in that these reports ascended so soon after the November votes were cast. The good news, politics notwithstanding, is that the economy at last has turned around.
The timing is little more than bad fortune for the president, though some raised eyebrows are understandable. Consider these items:
A survey in September by Presstime, the trade magazine of the Newspaper Association of America, indicated that almost 52 percent of the nation's editors and publishers believe there is bias in the general media's political coverage, and of those respondents, nearly 71 percent believed the leaning is liberal.
The more conservative of the presidential candidates, George Bush, would have benefited politically by media reports of economic revival.
One media watchdog group contends that 91 percent of economic stories in the last two years have been primarily negative. Accuracy In Media insists many positive economic stories published or broadcast since the election could have as easily been filed months ago; the same statistics were available.
So, did the national news media beat President Bush with its reporting on the economy? Pinning the president's defeat on any one thing is wrong-headed. Certainly, the Democrats made hay with a national theme of bad economic times, gainfully ignoring the improving picture. The president himself diluted the good news by twice previously in 1991 and again in 1992 declaring the recession at an end; when all evidence bore out the president's claims, his pronouncement carried less weight. On top of this, finding consensus among economists is rather like finding patriots among waterfowl ... it isn't easily done. A recession isn't like a football game in which score is kept and time ultimately expires. Its dynamics are more complex, and its beginning and ending are more elusive.
Of more consequence now is the report last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the recession has ended. Consumer confidence is increasing, unemployment is decreasing, factory production is blossoming and the outlook is bright. Let us hope Americans embrace this news, just as they hope the new administration will act to sustain it.
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