REMEDY OF LOST HOPE: INVADING HAITI

Only a portion of American foreign policy with respect to Haiti is formulated in the White House and the State Department. A big part is being determined by the increasing population of desperate boat people fleeing their homeland.

If the numbers were modest so as to allow the refugees to be accommodated at Guantanamo and other Caribbean "safe havens," President Bill Clinton could further postpone any notion of invading Haiti and hope that the sanction screws might work over time. However, if the refugee population continues to escalate by the thousands and begins to outstrip our ability to accommodate them with even the most basic needs of life, then the option of patiently awaiting the success of sanctions begins to fade.

We could be approaching that point in the Haiti saga. We would either have to accept thousands of Haitian refugees for "safe haven" on our shores and process them as we do other refugees under applicable immigration laws or we would have to "go to the source" -- invading Haiti.

If we were to begin accepting boatloads of Haitian refugees in Miami, school would be out -- the refugee flood would become a tidal wave. Haitians speak French or Creole, but America is their promised land. It is in America where hundreds of thousands of Haitian-Americans have been born. It is in America, and no where else on earth, that Haitians have some meaningful political court -- through the Congressional Black Caucus.

Just as the world, except for France, has declared the horrid events in Rwanda to be outside the scope of human remediation, so too has the world, except for the United States, removed itself from any concern over Haiti. It's our problem, in our backyard, to be resolved by us. We may seek some cosmetic comfort in obtaining nominal support from other countries in Central and South America. Randall Robinson and others may call for a "hemispheric response," but that's a bit of a sham. Whatever action to be taken is United States action bought and paid for.

If the outpouring of refugees clogs the ability of the system to accommodate, our remaining remedies are prayer, the CIA or a military invasion. Could the CIA pull off a Guatemala-like coup overthrowing the colonels? Are Haitian thugs divisible into good thugs and bad thugs? Could we make it worth the while of the good thugs to overthrow the bad thugs?

Could we use the CIA and a modicum of American force to induce a "Haitian solution" to the Haitian dilemma? Remember, it's a Guatemala replay we would want, not another Somalia. Likewise, we would want no Bay of Pigs here. The tea leaves tell us that there will be no gross miscalculation as to the preferences of the Haitian people similar to our stunning misreading of the people's intentions in Cuba in 1961.

If it is to be an out-and-out invasion, it can be efficiently done at minimal risk. Getting in will be fairly easy; getting out will be painfully difficult.

Installing President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in his presidential palace will be just the beginning of the story. A political infrastructure has to be built. A system of justice must be established. A police force/national guard has to be trained and equipped and much of an old police force/national guard has to be disarmed and dealt with in some manner or other. A destitute economy must be reconstructed. Millions of people have to be fed. Millions of dollars will have to be spent.

In short order, we will be moving beyond simply restoring Aristide to power. We will be keeping him in power. At some point, either we will own him or he will own us. Either Aristide becomes our puppet or, like Diem in Vietnam, he will dictate to us because he knows we can't pick up our marbles and sail home.

However it plays out, after the invasion, Haiti becomes a day-to-day American responsibility. A commentator recently said, "It may take ten days to complete the invasion and ten years to get out." The longer we stay, the more dependent on the United States Haiti becomes. The longer we stay, the more likely Aristide will be viewed by his people not as an independent democratic leader, but as a dependent lackey.

The pressures to invade Haiti mount. We may be but one dead American away from the "provocation trigger." Nevertheless, the invasion of Haiti is a remedy to be avoided. It is the remedy of lost hope.

Thomas Eagleton, Democrat, is a former U.S. senator from Missouri.