PRESIDENT BUSH MIGHT BE FRIENDLESS, EXCEPT FOR THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The blunt fact is that George Bush is not well ~liked by lots of Americans. Most Democrats dislike him. That's forgivable in political terms. But the president also puts off perhaps large numbers of the independents and, at least for now, one-third of his own Republicans. That's unforgivable in political terms.

No one ever accused Ronald Reagan of being brilliant, but you knew where he stood and the people liked him. He had a commanding presence. He could read a speech better than any president of the television era.

Bush is completely the opposite. You don't know where he stands. "Read my lips" was his one unforgettable message. Now it's: Forgive me. I'm sorry you read my lips. I won't mess up again. Bush's oratory is, by and large, pathetic. Off the cuff, he butchers the English language and has never met a punch line he couldn't botch. As a campaigner, Bush is frenetic and erratic. He can't even buy sweat socks at Penney's without looking loony. Bush simply isn't presidential. Worse than that, people have taken a personal dislike to him a la Jimmy Carter in his final two years.

The story of last week's primaries was not necessarily Pat Buchanan's 37 percent of the vote in Georgia, where he campaigned assiduously. The story was the Buchanan 30 percent vote in Maryland and Colorado, where he campaigned not at all.

Against a mythical, Superman Democrat, Bush would now be facing the prospect of a humiliating defeat. In politics, there are lots of myths, but no Superman. The Democratic race is now down to two choices. There is no knight in shining armor waiting in the wings.

The two Democrats have some baggage. For Bill Clinton, Gennifer Flowers and draft dodging dogged him right up to Junior Tuesday. These "character" issues have not necessarily been laid to rest by his Georgia landslide. They would be Bush meat in the fall campaign. Paul Tsongas admits to being a quasi-liberal from Massachusetts. It's hard to fathom his sustainable political appeal as a national candidate. His quirky style won't pass the test of political time.

With Tsongas as the nominee, the Democrats would face the same Electoral College number problem that has doomed them in five of the last six elections. A Tsongas victory game plan would have to play out this way. Six states are safely Democratic: Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island and West Virginia, plus the District of Columbia (71 electoral votes). Five more mostly lean Democratic: Connecticut, Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (70 electoral votes). Michael Dukakis carried three not listed above: Iowa, Oregon and Washington (25 electoral votes). California is in a mess and could go Democratic today (54 electoral votes). Illinois and Missouri are possibles (33 electoral votes).

Even with all of that, the Democrats are 17 short of the magic 270 and would need some breaks in states that have been voting consistently Republican for the past quarter of a century.

Buchanan proves that Bush is beatable, but remember he ultimately has to be beaten in the Electoral College.