MR. MODERATE-MR. COOL VERSUS THE FLAME THROWER IN RACE FOR PRESIDENT

A year ago the Democratic nomination for president was a booby prize worth avoiding. No longer. The sluggish Bush Christmas and the now admitted Bush Recession puts the Democratic nominee in the political ballpark. Bush's eventual opponent will not be the favorite, to be sure, but will not be so far out of the running as to make 1992 like 1984 when Ronald Reagan benignly campaigned for his second-term coronation.

We are not in a double dip recession we simply never got out of the first dip. Most downturns mangle the blue collar workers. This one devastates everything and everyone: home builders, retailers, car makers (even Rolls-Royce sales are down by half), technicians, accountants, lawyers and engineers. Germany is slumping. The Japanese banks and the Japanese stock market are precarious. For every nation and in every walk of life there is something more worrisome than slumping economic numbers -- there is a worldwide slumping level of confidence. As Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan points out, no one believes that the future is going to be brighter for him and his family. No one is confident about his job. There is no rainbow and no Judy Garland to sing us over it.

A year ago, George Bush was the deft Commander in Chief of the entire free world about to clobber Hitler Jr.; today he's the bumbling bookkeeper scratching his head.

How about Democrats? The first multi-candidate debate was a bit like a tag mud wrestling contest. It was hard to come out clean. It did produce a healthy smidgen of attention. Five of the participants were occasionally relevant; the sixth, Jerry Brown, was -- what shall we say -- Jerry Brown. No one stole the show and ran off with the Academy Award. Paul Tsongas perhaps won the content contest. He's a thoughtful man with a pained David Souter look. Bob Kerry started slowly, but picked up momentum when he told Jerry Brown to stuff it. Tom Harkin showed that prairie populism and isolationism still have a voice. Bill Clinton was Mr. Cool-Mr. Middle. He tried to rise above it all. At times, he rose a bit too far. But as Brown flailed around, Clinton's laid back demeanor looked good by comparison.

For the moment, Clinton is the frontrunner. His speeches have been well received. He handily won the Florida beauty contest.

Can a Mr. Middle win the Democratic nomination? Remember Ed Muskie in 1972 and Scoop Jackson in 1976? They weren't flame-throwers and they didn't fly politically. With seven candidates in the race, can a Mr. Moderate cut out an identifiable niche? Or is the race for the Democratic nomination winnable only by a flame thrower?

Had Mario Cuomo entered the race, he would have been the flame receiver. He was the big leaguer with a big-league reputation and with big-league money. He was the only one with the reputation and resources to make a quickie invasion of the presidential primaries. Clinton would have been the man of the minute, but Cuomo might have been the man of the hour.

If the Democrats could dispatch the fringe players and reduce the race to two or three participants, then they could reduce the mud wrestling into a head-to-head demolition derby. The survivor will have what now looks like at least a fighting chance against George Bush.