MISSOURI COMMENTARY: ELECTION RESULTS FADE AWAY, BUT THE RECRIMINATIONS LINGER ON

The presidential polls late last week read as follows: Clinton up 22 in CBS/NYT; up 19 in CNN/USA Today; up 17 in NBC/WSJ; up 13 in ABC; up 11 in Reuters.

It's getting close to the time when candidates all across the country sit down and draft two little speeches: the victory speech and the I-gave-it-my-all speech. On election night, both are close at hand -- just in case.

Another set of speeches is already in preparation, the recrimination speeches dumping on Bob Dole if, as the polls predict, he loses. These will come in a variety of styles.

-- Disgruntled vice presidential hopefuls. Already Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin has grabbed the scalpel. "I thought George Bush's campaign was probably the poorest run president campaign -- and I think this is a close second." Thompson had earlier boasted that he could deliver Wisconsin for Dole, but "they haven't taken my advice."

Thompson, the principal advocate of the proposal to turn the welfare programs over to the states, wanted Dole to turn his campaign over to the Republican governors each to run separate campaigns, a quaint notion ensuring catastrophe.

Gov. Fife Symington of Arizona -- not a vice president hopeful, just a fellow wanting to be hopeful about something -- also pounced on the Dole efforts as "Melba toast."

-- The social conservatives. Ralph Reed deplores all the attention Dole paid to economics and taxes instead of focusing on the social issues. Dole proposes five constitutional amendments and he mentioned two of the cultural issue amendments -- school prayer and flag burning -- in the final debate.

The most prominent proposed constitutional amendment -- the anti-abortion amendment -- wasn't mentioned during the fall campaign. Reed wil blame much of Dole's defeat on his avoidance of this key issue.

-- The go-negative brigade. Some will say Dole didn't get mean enough early enough. Donald Rumsfeld, Dole's campaign chairman says, "We should have brought up the character issue sooner." This hindsight may linger longer than most others. Dole faced a dilemma. He had ammunition to fire at Bill Clinton, but he also had a reputation as being a mean-spirited campaigner. How do you use the former without fueling the latter?

Americans appear to be of two minds about negative campaigning. When directly asked about negative campaigning, the people polled express their antipathy to it -- especially if the evil words come out of the mouth of the candidate.

However, if a well-crafted negative spot appears on television often enough, it generates a subliminal impact on the viewer's thought process. People may claim they don't like negative ads, but they tend to remember them.

-- The anti-Kemp faction. Jack Kemp was supposed to do the hatchet work. What good is a vice presidential nominee if he won't carve up the opposition?

Kemp is a one dimensional figure in American politics; his sole message is that supply-side economics is the cure for all evil. Kemp devoutly believes in it. He will not be deterred from it. Hatchet work is not his specialty.

-- The supply-siders. The flip side of the Kemp coin is that supply-siders will fault Dole about not being sufficiently devout on Kemponomics. Not only did Dole join the crusade too late, he didn't make the case with sufficient persuasiveness and zeal. The message is still a great one; the messenger was flawed.

-- The gun lobby. The National Rifle Association will blame Dole's defeat on his flip-flop on the assault weapons ban. Once the apostle of the NRA, Dole flinched when he came down the stretch. gun owners, they will claim, had no choice but to punish him.

-- The blame Gingrich gang. No doubt Gingrich was a central element in the Democratic attack -- maybe the critical element.

How much blame Gingrich will absorb will depend on the results of the elections for the House of Representatives. If the Republicans hold the House majority with Gingrich retaining the speakership, then the heavy blame on Gingrich will be partially deflected. The argument will be: Gingrich held his own in his own forum; it was Dole who couldn't carry the water in his.

Whatever is said election night by the winning and losing candidates, will be soon forgotten. Recriminations have a long shelf life -- enough to carry on to the next election.

~Tom Eagleton of St. Louis is a former U.S. senator from Missouri.