LETTER: THE FUTURE OF ISREAL

To the editor:

Just a few days ago, Yitsak Rabin, one of the more respected and outstanding public figures in the world, was brutally gunned down by an assassin's bullets. Here in the western world he was known as a statesman and a politician, but in Israel his persona was more that of a military leader.

Yitsak Rabin, for his entire adult life, had been in the forefront of Israel's battle for independence and recognition as a sovereign nation. In the 1940s he was a commando in the Haganah, the Jewish underground army.In 1967 he was one of the principal military leaders in the sweeping victories of the Six Day War. And in the 1980s he was the hard-nosed defense minister who cracked down, without mercy, on extremists during the Arab uprising known as the Intifada.

Give that background, it was still Rabin who two months ago, in probably the most courageous act of his career, reached out to Yassir Arafat, his bitter, lifetime enemy, with a tentative handshake.

Whither now the peace movement? For the time being, Rabin's fellow Laborite, Shimon Peres, will serve as acting prime minister and will attempt to keep the peace process on target. But Israeli politics are a tricky matter. The Israeli government is a parliamentary democracy with two major parties (Labor and Likkud) that each gather about 40 percent of the vote in a national election. The remaining 20 percent is usually divided among about eight parties with views ranging from the far left to the extreme right, of necessity resulting in a coalition government. In fact, every government formed in Israel since 1948 has required accommodation and conciliation between the left and the right, and their duration has always been tenuous. Only last month the present government came within one vote of being overthrown.

With Rabin removed from the scene, support for the peace process and for the Labor Party is weakened as Shimon Peres doesn't command the same stature and respect as did Rabin, a proven and bloodied military legend.

A critical juncture has been reached in the storied history of the Middle East. Some time after the first of the year a general election will be held in Israel which will help determine the future direction and momentum of the peace movement. As of now, there is no way to determine or even forecast the outcome of that election. Most polls in Israel indicate the Israelis are almost equally divided in their approval of or opposition to the policies of the present government. Much, therefore, depends on whether a Labor-led coalition or Likkud-led coalition is victorious. A Labor victory would probably mean a continuation of present policy with Shimon Peres at the helm, while a Likkud victory might mean a dramatic turn from the land-for-peace policy of the present government.

It is to be hoped that the western democracies recognize the exigent nature of the events now overwhelming the Levant. The world had shrunk and grows ever smaller, and we are all a part of and affected by the drama taking place half a world away.

PAUL L. EBAUGH

Cape Girardeau