KINDER'S COMMENTARY: HANDICAPPING HINTS AT TALENT-HOPEN GOVERNOR'S RACE IN 2000

Sources tell this writer of a likely February announcement of a run for governor by U.S. Rep. Jim Talent, R-St. Louis. That is to say, if he doesn't so announce, Talent will stun Republican insiders all over Missouri.

The amiable Talent, a married father of three, is a graduate of Washington University and the University of Chicago Law School. He served in the Missouri House of Representatives during the 1980s and there compiled an impressive record. He was elected minority floor leader, where he won respect from both parties.

In 1992, Talent left his safe House seat to run for the GOP nomination for Congress in Missouri's 2nd District (St. Louis and St. Charles counties). He faced a stiff challenge from a better-financed George Herbert "Bert" Walker, the CEO of Stifel, Nicolaus brokerage house, who just happened to be the first cousin of the president of the United States at the time. Putting together a textbook grass-roots campaign featuring hundreds of energetic volunteers, Talent prevailed in the primary and went on to defeat a Democratic incumbent who had, two years earlier, captured one of Missouri's two most Republican congressional seats. Since then Talent has won easily each time out. It is reasonable to suppose that he could be congressman-for-life from the 2nd District.

In his brief congressional tenure, Talent has won plaudits nationwide for his leadership. He has teamed up with new House GOP conference chairman Rep. J.C. Watts, R-Oklahoma, to sponsor the Community Renewal Act, an attempt to regenerate America's inner cities. One of the key planks of this bill is parental freedom in education, or parental choice of schools.

At this remove it is of course impossible to forecast the outcome of next year's gubernatorial race between Talent and the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Treasurer Bob Holden, twice a winner in statewide races. The Jeff City buzz among Holden insiders is that they are excited about the prospect of running against Talent. In this they may have in mind the fact that Missouri voters have rejected gubernatorial bids, over the last 60 years or so, from St. Louis candidates of both parties.

Of course, seasoned political types will recall that the Carter-Mondale crowd desperately wanted to run against Ronald Reagan, whom they saw as an amiable dunce, an easy "extremist" mark, rather than the "more electable" Gerald Ford. Over the next two elections, Reagan cruised to wins in 93 of 100 states, converted million of Democrats and rewrote America's political landscape. Talent, who unlike Holden has never lost an election, is a Reaganesque conservative solidly in the mainstream of his party. A Talent-Holden race will offer Missourians a choice every bit as clear as the historic U.S. Senate race between Sen. John Ashcroft and Gov. Mel Carnahan.

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On the first day of each new legislative session, it is customary for state senators to sit for a speech by our chamber's leader, the president pro tem, and to offer him standing ovations. On Jan. 6 at noon we convened to swear in newly elected members and to hear Sen. Ed Quick, D-Kansas City, make his address.

What made this unusual was the response of two senior Democratic members. As every other senator of both parties stood to applaud Quick, all could see two of the 18 Democrats pointedly sitting on their hands, refusing either to stand or applaud. The meaning of this public snub, unknown to this writer, has many buzzing.

~Peter Kinder is assistant to the president of Rust Communications and a state senator from Cape Girardeau.