How did Missouri become a Republican stronghold?

Growing up, I remember hearing Missouri was a political bellwether state, that sometimes it went blue and other times red in the presidential election.

Though Missouri hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential ticket since Bill Clinton in 1996, many state offices remained with the party until 2016.

Even as recently as a few years ago, while the Missouri General Assembly had a strong majority, liberal centers in St. Louis, Columbia and Kansas city made it difficult for a Republican to win statewide. For a time, Cape Girardeau native and former Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder was the only statewide elected Republican in Jefferson City.

But it appears the tide has turned with five of six state offices in Jefferson City now held by Republicans, along with both U.S. Senate seats.

On Nov. 3, President Donald Trump carried the Show Me State with 56% of the vote compared to Joe Biden's 41%. Likewise, Gov. Mike Parson defeated the only statewide elected Democrat, Auditor Nicole Galloway, with 57% of the vote to Galloway's 40%.

Go down the list of other statewide offices this year and Republicans won with solid margins.

A similar trend happened in 2016. Then-candidate Donald Trump won 56% of the vote compared to Hillary Clinton's 38%. Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens picked up 51% over then-Attorney General Chris Koster -- previously a Republican state senator before switching party allegiance -- who earned 45%.

But it's not only in presidential election years that Missouri Republicans have been successful. Josh Hawley defeated prominent political force Claire McCaskill in 2018 for U.S. Senate, making it three consecutive elections -- 2016, 2018 and 2020 -- that Republicans have won key races in Missouri.

As the Democratic Party has moved further left, Missouri has increasingly become a Republican stronghold up and down the ballot. "Defund the police" rhetoric, riots and calls for socialism are not playing well for Democrats in Missouri or in many mainstream congressional districts across the country.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat representing central Virginia in Congress, confirmed this sentiment in a conference call following her close election.

"The No. 1 concern in things that people brought to me in my [district] that I barely re-won, was defunding the police," Spanberger said. "And I've heard from colleagues who have said 'Oh, it's the language of the streets. We should respect that.' We're in Congress. We are professionals. We are supposed to talk about things in the way where we mean what we're talking about. If we don't mean we should defund the police, we shouldn't say that."

The challenge, however, is many in the far-left wing of her party do mean it. And voters are not buying it.

Recently I spoke with Lloyd Smith, one of the sharpest political minds in Missouri who also served as chief of staff to Bill and Jo Ann Emerson.

Smith reminded me this year marks the 40th anniversary of Bill Emerson's first congressional win in 1980. Southeast Missouri at that time was much more blue than it is today. Emerson helped transform it.

"When Bill ran that first time in 1980, there was one Republican state representative and no Republican state senators in the entire district," Smith said.

Over time, Emerson led the effort to recruit Republican candidates in Southeast Missouri for the state house based on the issues most important in the district.

Republican political operatives would make the pitch, and when they needed "the hammer," as Smith put it, Bill Emerson would meet the prospective candidates for tea or coffee and convince them they could run and win. Over time, this model was replicated across the state.

Regardless of how 2020's presidential election ends following legal challenges, the Donald Trump era combined with the leftward shift of Democrats has galvanized previously underrepresented voters in the working class.

"I think the Biden-Harris ticket was so far to the left on energy and life and law and order that people gravitated back to Trump," Smith said. "Parson did a great job of trying to navigate COVID without shutting us down and killing our economy totally. And he took a lot of shots for that from his opponent. But ultimately, I think the way he conducted himself after Greitens resigning, he hit the ground running. He was all over the state. I think Parson has been more into the bootheel in that period of time than any governor I could remember. Talking about jobs, talking about economic development, talking about the importance of agriculture and a trained workforce. And all those things kind of molded him into someone that can handle COVID, because he'd been talking about [economic development], been talking about jobs."

Whether the Republican trend in Missouri continues is an unknown. Having good candidates plays an important role for the GOP. But if Democrats continue to move left, they will have a difficult time being competitive in a state that's moved solidly in the Republicans' favor.

Lucas Presson is assistant publisher of the Southeast Missourian.