FORECASTING EARTHQUAKES ISN'T VERY EASY

A year after New Mexico climatologist Iben Browning caused near panic by sending out an alarm that a major earthquake would occur along the New Madrid Fault, a team of scientists began a study in an effort to determine just when the next big one might occur.

Their findings: A quake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale, which would be catastrophic, won't occur anytime soon. In fact, it could take 14,000 years for it to happen.

Keep in mind that the late Dr. Browning's prediction that a 50 percent chance existed for a major quake to occur along the fault about Dec. 3, 1990, was based on tidal forces. His prediction raised so much concern that a special group was appointed by the U.S. Geological Survey to review its validity. The group, which included the chief of the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Engineering for the Geological Survey, found there was no scientific basis for his prediction. Nevertheless, he instilled fear in many people across the region.

In 1991, Joe Engelin, a University of Missouri associate professor of geological sciences, and other scientists instituted their study along the fault in hopes of determining how near a major quake really is.

They stuck steel rods into the ground in 24 spots along the fault and revisited the sites in 1993 and 1997. They applied global positioning satellite technology and determine the rods had hardly moved during the test period. On that they concluded strain and stress along the fault are not building up fast enough to cause large earthquakes very frequently.

While Browning's prediction proved to be way off base, it did serve a valuable purpose: Emergency response agencies and the public began to plan and otherwise prepare for a devastating earthquake, and they still are today. The danger in the latest prognostication is that it might have a reverse effect in that people will become complacent.

That would be tragic, because there seems to be little question that a catastrophic quake like those of 1811 and 1812 will occur again along the New Madrid Fault. The question is when. And despite their best efforts, scientists are unable to accurately predict their occurrences anywhere in the world.

Revelation 3:3 says, "...and thou shalt not know what hour I will come upon thee." The same applies to the volatile New Madrid Fault.