Afghanistan's fortunate choices

Afghanistan is little in the news these days. Other than occasional stories about Taliban terrorism, fumbles by the Obama national security team, or erratic statements by Afghan President Hamid Karzai (mercifully in the last few months of his term), few headlines receive prominent coverage. Sometimes, no news is good news. Indeed, despite serious missteps by the Obama administration, there is reason to believe that Afghanistan, this central Asian nation that has endured so much suffering, might be emerging from decades of disaster.

In the late 1960s and early 1970s, Afghanistan had a progressive image, and was a popular destination for Western travelers seeking adventure, enjoying a thriving tourist trade amid levels of security that would be enviable today. In Kabul, it was not unusual to see young Afghans attending university and partying in night clubs, with a lifestyle that would not seem at odds in Europe or the U.S.; miniskirts, mopeds and American movies were common in the Afghan capital. Major economic projects, from roads to dams to a new electrical grid, promised to bring Afghanistan into prosperity. These years of optimism ended with the 1979 Soviet invasion, which ushered in more than two decades of death, civil war and resurgent Islamic fanaticism, most recently embodied by the Taliban.

The 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, launched to punish al-Qaida and destroy its bases, brought a new phase of the conflict, but also a possibility for the Afghans to reclaim the future lost in 1979. While the mercurial President Karzai has been a major disappointment, tolerating corruption, refusing to a sign a security agreement with the U.S. that he had championed, and stealing the 2009 presidential election, even his bumbling has not been able to mask the genuine progress of Afghanistan.

The indecisiveness of the Obama administration, and its accelerated withdrawal of U.S. forces, has been an operational failure, even if overall Afghanistan may yet survive as a strategic success. What took the U.S. under President George W. Bush years to form -- a strong coalition of nations such as Germany, Turkey, France and Canada, training Afghan soldiers and fighting against the Taliban -- collapsed within months after President Obama announced he was withdrawing all U.S. combat forces.

Fortunately, Afghan forces have demonstrated more courage and battlefield competency than predicted by many Western experts, but their losses have been unnecessarily high, absent the logistical, intelligence and air support they once had from the U.S. and other nations on a much larger scale.

The Taliban remains a danger, but it is no longer an existential threat. These terrorists are strong enough to kill innocent Afghans, launch minor attacks, and cause casualties among Afghan military and police, but too weak to bring down the government through these means. Its latest failure was its inability to disrupt the April 5 presidential election, despite bloodthirsty promises to do so. Indeed, it is this election that should give Afghans and their friends throughout the world hope that they are on the verge of a happier future.

Afghanistan's presidential elections, the nation's third since the US-led liberation of 2001-2002, yielded two front-runners, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, who earned more than 40 percent, and Dr. Ashraf Ghani, with just over 30 percent. The two will meet again in a May runoff. Afghanistan could not ask for two stronger potential presidents. Both are strong advocates for a continued security relationship with the United States and ardent enemies of the Taliban.

While each has positive relationships with the major Western powers -- Abdullah previously served as Foreign Minister and Ghani as Finance Minister and as a World Bank Official -- they also are among the national leaders most respected by their own people as internally legitimate.

While Kabul does have a population of pro-Western Afghans, it is in the villages where most people live that the real battle for the nation is being fought. In rural Afghanistan, conservative Islam has endured for centuries, isolated from the world and even the capital. Ironically, it might be the Taliban that has opened the way for a brighter future; while their tactics have been brutal and unbelievably destructive, their practice of bribing villagers with motorcycles, mobile phones and satellite-enabled televisions has done much to undermine their narrow view of the world.

These technologies have connected Afghan villages to the world, and contributed not only to more widespread voting than in 2009, but an election that was recognized internally and internationally as freer and fairer.

For all of his unpredictability, and rejection of the security treaty with the U.S., Hamid Karzai was seen by many Afghans as a leader imposed externally.

With two excellent presidential options before them, the Afghan people will emerge after the final round of these elections with not only a more qualified and competent leader than Karzai, but a more legitimate government.

Either will ratify the defense agreement with the U.S., redouble efforts to crush the Taliban and revive the Afghan economy, making a positive future within grasp for the first time in 35 years. While the path ahead is for the Afghans to travel, hopefully their friends, including the United States, will do everything possible to help them get past any roadblocks along the way.

Wayne Bowen, a U.S. Army veteran, received his Ph.D. in history from Northwestern University. He resides in Cape Girardeau.