A POCKET CALCULATOR AND `BIG CHOICES'

First, there was the Republican "Contract with America."

More than 300 GOP candidates for the House of Representatives stood on the Capitol steps and pledged to cut taxes, increase defense spending and balance the budget -- all at the same time. This is the poppycock that George Bush once called "Voodoo economics." Bush was right. It was voodoo then; it's voodoo now.

Along comes Alice Rivlin. She's the budget director. She carries a pocket calculator in her purse along with a list of "Big Choices" of ways to reduce the budget deficit. Going way back to her days doing budget-type work for the Congress, Rivlin would walk down the halls,pop our her calculator, punch some numbers, and accost any passer-by with her list of budget alternatives.

The basic problem never changes and the list of options remains pretty much the same. The basic problem is that around 2012, the federal government, if it stays on the present course, will go broke. This is because around 2012, there will be an avalanche of baby boomer "retirees" that will cause the Social Security retirement and Medicare and Medicaid systems to collapse. The New York Times puts it more subtly this way: "As the Social Security Trust Fund runs dry and health expenditures of an aging population soar, Congress will have to cut spending or raise taxes sooner or later. Made sooner, the cost need hammer no one hard. Made later they will hurt."

It's all a matter of "entitlements." What are entitlements? They are government spending programs for which Congress has set the eligibility criteria: age, income, occupation, etc. If a person meets the criteria, he or she is automatically "entitled" to the money. Entitlements are mandatory spending. The federal treasury goes on automatic pilot.

When John Kennedy was president, entitlements were a third of the budget. Today it's over one half. By 2012, it will be two thirds.

Alice Rivlin has been watching these figures for over 20 years and every once in a while she pops out her handy option list -- usually not, however, on the eve of an election.

Even people out in Sun City who most zealously want to control government spending don't want to rein in some of their favorite entitlements. Social Security is far and away the biggest and most sacred. It grows and grows and people live longer and longer. The old folks lobby is the strongest in America.

By the way, this isn't just an American problem. Today there are 500 million people worldwide who are 60 and over (9 percent of the world's population). By 2030, the World Bank says the figure will be 1.5 billion (16 percent of the population). Developed countries are already high on the elderly list. In European countries, in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 17 percent of the population is 60 and over, whereas in Africa it is only 5 percent. By 2030, the OECD nations will have an "ancient" population -- one third over 60 and either retired or about to retire.

In Italy, for example, spending on state pensions will double by 2030 from 11 percent to 22 percent of GDP. Every OECD nation faces a looming pension crisis.

Likewise, every developed nation faces a looming health care crisis. After Social Security on the entitlement list come Medicare and Medicaid, both growing at explosive rates. Further down on the list are the federal civil service retirement system and the military retirement system.

If the Republicans are sincere about their "Contract with America" and want to simultaneously cut taxes, increase defense spending and balance the budget, then they will have to massively reduce all entitlement programs -- not just the retirement entitlement programs, but all. For example, Sen. Robert Dole (R-Kan.), perhaps the next majority leader of the Senate, would have to tell his Kansas farmers, "Sorry, we are doing away with the agriculture entitlements ($12 billion)." Dole is a champion of veterans entitlements. He would have to tell the veterans, "Sorry, no more veterans benefits ($16 billion)."

The budget deficit has been reduced substantially -- down this year to $203 billion from the Bush forecast of $270 billion. That's the here and now. The later and hereafter is that the United States and every country in Europe will face a pension calamity in the early part of the next century.

Politics in America and elsewhere is very much a here and now business. Tomorrow is in focus. Perhaps we can even see as far as next month. OK, some see even as far as next year. Next century? "Forget it. That's not our problem."

~Tom Eagleton is a former U.S. senator from Missouri and a columnist for the Pulitzer Publishing Co.