Hurricane Milton takes aim at Tampa Bay, Florida, as a Category 4 storm

Hurricane Milton is weakening slightly but remains a ferocious storm that could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on Tampa and St. Petersburg, engulfing the populous region with towering storm surges and turning debris from Helene’s devastation 12 days ago into projectiles.

Follow AP’s coverage of tropical weather at https://apnews.com/hub/hurricanes.

Here’s the latest:

What is a hurricane’s storm surge?

Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above its normal level.

Much like the way a storm’s sustained winds don’t include the potential for even stronger gusts, storm surge doesn’t include the wave height above the mean water level of the surge itself.

Surge is also the amount above what the normal tide is at the time, so a 15-foot (5-meter) storm surge at high tide with 10-foot (3-meter) waves on top of that can level buildings with ease, knock down bridges and flatten anything in its path.

▶ Read more about hurricane storm surge.

Hurricane Milton forces Bucs and Lightning to leave Florida early and other teams to alter games

The NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NHL’s Tampa Bay Lightning have left Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton to practice the rest of the week.

The Bucs departed Tuesday, relocating to New Orleans, where they’ll face the Saints on Sunday. The Lightning left for Raleigh, North Carolina, on Monday night to continue preparations for their season opener against the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday night.

The Lightning’s home opener against Carolina is set for Saturday night and is on as scheduled for now.

At the college level, the American Athletic Conference announced that a football game between Memphis and South Florida at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa has been rescheduled from Friday night to Saturday. The conference plans to monitor conditions after Milton passes and adjust accordingly.

UCF’s Big 12 home football game vs. Cincinnati remains scheduled for a 3:30 p.m. EDT kickoff in Orlando.

UCF’s men’s soccer match vs. Marshall was rescheduled from Friday night to Sunday. Other college events postponed include a women’s soccer match in Boca Raton between Florida Atlantic and Rice; it was to be played Thursday and now will be played on Oct. 17.

The LPGA Tour postponed the qualifying stage of its LPGA Q-Series that was scheduled for Oct. 13-18 at Plantation Golf and Country Club in Venice, Florida. The tour said it would provide an update for the qualifying tournament after the storm passes.

▶ Read more about the storm’s effect on sports in Florida.

Disney World remains open while Universal Orlando will close ahead of Milton

Orlando’s tourism machine began grinding to a halt Tuesday with at least one major theme park and the main airport announcing closures ahead of Hurricane Milton ’s expected hit as a major storm in Florida.

Universal said it would close its theme parks and entertainment district at 2 p.m. Wednesday and remain closed on Thursday, canceling Halloween Horror Nights scheduled for both days.

The resort joins Orlando International Airport, which said it would cease operations Wednesday morning. The airport is the nation’s seventh busiest and Florida’s most trafficked.

Meanwhile, Walt Disney World said it was operating under normal conditions and planned, for now, only to close its campgrounds and rental cabins in wooded areas.

▶ Read more about Florida’s theme parks.

After seeing sharks in flooded streets during Helene, Florida man braces for Milton

In southwest Florida, the streets in the seaside town of Punta Gorda’s historic district, hard by the Peace River, are still filled with 5-foot piles of water-logged trashed pulled from homes damaged by Hurricane Helene’s storm surge two weeks ago. Furniture, drywall, appliances, clothes, Bibles and other books, stuffed animals and other toys and even a couple hot tubs line the streets.

It’s an area that was hit hard by Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Ian two years ago, but that was mostly wind damage.

Many of the residents have temporarily moved away as the homes are unlivable, but accountant and art collector Scott Joiner remains on the second floor of the New Orleans-style home he built 17 years ago.

He said during Helene’s storm surge, bull sharks swam in the flooded streets and an alligator was found nearby. A neighbor had to be rescued by canoe. His family thought his first-floor garage would be a safe place to store their property, but the surge was too high. He said the city has been trying to pick up the trash, but didn’t have enough time.

Now he’s worried Milton’s expected surge will make matters worse.

“Water is a blessing to have, but it is very deadly,” Joiner said.

What kind of destruction do hurricanes cause?

The toll of damage from a hurricane depends on its strength and where it makes landfall.

Even a relatively weak hurricane can cause major damage and many deaths if it hits a vulnerable community or damages a key piece of infrastructure. A mid-strength hurricane such as 2004’s Hurricane Jeanne in Florida will cause devastating damage to homes, infrastructure and the power grid. Deaths also commonly occur because of flooding, accidents, injuries and other disturbances caused by the storm.

What causes a hurricane?

Hurricanes often start as tropical waves that combine with warm ocean waters, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They may also be fueled by thunderstorms. The weather system moves west as warm ocean air rises into it, and that creates a low pressure area underneath it, NOAA said. Air rises and cools, and that forms clouds and thunderstorms.

Hurricanes have maximum sustained winds — the highest one-minute average wind speed at a particular point in time — of 74 mph (120 kph) or higher. If a tropical cyclone has maximum sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph (63 kph to 120 kph), it’s called a tropical storm. If maximum sustained winds are less than 39 mph (63 kph), it’s called a tropical depression.

Hurricanes typically occur during hurricane season, which in the Atlantic basin occurs each year from June 1 to Nov. 30.

▶ Read more about hurricanes.

NASA astronaut posts video of the hurricane from space

Matthew Dominick shared a timelapse video to X that showed the hurricane from the Dragon Endeavour spacecraft.

Dominick and three other astronauts were supposed to return to Earth on Oct. 7 after a seven-month stay at the International Space Station. But their homecoming has been repeatedly delayed by tropical weather that is now Hurricane Milton.

The soonest their SpaceX capsule can now undock for a splashdown off the Florida coast is Sunday.

The hunt for gasoline is adding to Floridians’ anxiety as Milton nears

Long lines and empty pumps at some Florida gas stations Tuesday compounded the stress for residents planning to either hunker down or flee as Hurricane Milton approached the state’s western coast.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a morning news conference that state officials were working with fuel companies to continue bringing in gasoline ahead of Milton’s expected landfall on Wednesday.

“We have been dispatching fuel over the past 24 hours as gas stations have run out,” DeSantis said. “So we currently have 268,000 gallons of diesel, 110,000 gallons of gasoline. Those numbers are less than what they were 24 hours ago because we’ve put a lot in, but we have an additional 1.2 million gallons of both diesel and gasoline that is currently en route to the state of Florida.”

DeSantis said there wasn’t a fuel shortage. But the hunt for gasoline was another nerve-fraying task for people preparing for a major hurricane.

▶ Read more about the fuel situation in Florida.

Officials say small plane carrying people trying to evacuate crashes into Tampa Bay

Fire officials say four passengers aboard a small airplane were trying to evacuate from Hurricane Milton when the aircraft crashed into Tampa Bay on Tuesday morning.

Three of the four passengers on the Piper Cherokee were hospitalized after the crash near Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, said Ashlie Handy, a spokesperson for St. Petersburg Fire Rescue.

The passengers and one dog traveling with them were rescued from the water by a good Samaritan in a boat, Handy told The Tampa Bay Times. Their conditions weren’t immediately known.

National Hurricane Center gives another update on Milton

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Tuesday afternoon that Hurricane Milton’s intensity had “rebounded,” though it was still a Category 4 storm.

The storm was about 520 miles (840 kilometers) southwest of Tampa with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph), the center said. It was traveling east by northeast at 8 mph (13 kph), it said.

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters were the ones to find the storm had intensified, the center said.

“Today is the last full day for Florida residents to get their families and homes ready and evacuate if told to do so,” the center said.

Florida Highway Patrol says ‘the time is now’ to evacuate

The Florida Highway Patrol says “heavy traffic patterns are flowing northbound and eastbound on all roadways” Tuesday afternoon as people continue to evacuate in advance of Hurricane Milton.

“For those wishing to evacuate, the time is now,” the agency said in a statement. “Otherwise, finalize your storm preparations now.”

Troopers were continuing to escort fuel tankers to assist with delivery of gasoline Tuesday. And the agency noted that all bridges in the Tampa Bay area will close when wind speeds are consistently at 45 mph or higher, or when troopers deem road conditions a danger to public safety.

Amid hurricanes, an advocacy group calls for Southeast states to give voters flexibility

Representatives of the voting advocacy group Common Cause in a media briefing Tuesday urged Southeast states recovering from Hurricane Helene and bracing for another severe storm to prioritize flexibility for voters in November’s election.

Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida, said the state has strong resiliency plans to protect election infrastructure, but “the place where we feel like the state is a lot weaker is really assessing what voters need.”

She argued Florida officials should further accommodate its displaced and overwhelmed residents, for example by using vote centers that allow registered voters to cast a ballot in a location other than their specific precinct.

Common Cause was among organizations that lobbied Florida and Georgia to extend their voter registration deadlines Monday, to no avail.

“The expectation on voters was too high” for them to focus on registering Monday, Keith said, as they dealt with debris from Hurricane Helene and evacuated for a second hurricane expected to make landfall Wednesday.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor says Milton’s storm surge could turn a house into ‘the coffin that you’re in’

The predicted storm surge could swallow an entire house.

“So if you’re in it, basically that’s the coffin that you’re in,” she said.

She also expressed concerns about how far the ocean water could spread across the city. If that happens, “that is something that you only see in movies,” she said.

“You want to pick a fight with Mother Nature? She’s winning 100% of the time,” the mayor added.

Preparations the Biden administration is making ahead of Hurricane Milton’s arrival

White House spokesperson Emilie Simons says the Biden administration has deployed temporary power teams, swift-water rescue teams and search and rescue teams as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida.

She said FEMA also has established two staging bases stocked with 20 million meals and 40 million liters of water, and has nearly 900 staff members in the region. That includes 440 working on recovery efforts in the wake of Hurricane Helene, she said.

“To anyone in Milton’s path, this storm will be catastrophic,” Simons told reporters aboard Air Force One as President Joe Biden was flying to Milwaukee. “We urge you to listen to local officials, especially if you are told to evacuate.”

Tampa City Councilman Guido Maniscalco calls Milton ‘a potentially historically catastrophic storm’

“So I’ve been here my whole life, and I’ve never seen a storm like this,” Maniscalco said at a briefing.

“This is a potentially life and death situation, this is a potentially historically catastrophic storm,” he said. “This is the storm of the century. We haven’t had this potential impact in over 100 years. We have to be ready. It’s all hands on deck.”

Disney World and Universal Orlando remain open ahead of Hurricane Milton

Major theme parks Walt Disney World and Universal remained open Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Milton ’s expected hit as a major storm in Florida even as other parts of Orlando’s tourism machine shut down.

Disney said it was operating under normal conditions and planned, for now, only to close its campgrounds and rental cabins in wooded areas.

Both theme parks say they’ll continue monitoring the weather and adjust accordingly.

Meanwhile, other parts of Orlando were shutting down — including Orlando International Airport, which said it would cease operations Wednesday morning. The airport is the nation’s seventh busiest and Florida’s most trafficked.

The Orlando area is the most visited destination in the United States due to Disney World, Universal Orlando Resort and other theme parks, attracting 74 million tourists last year alone.

▶ Read more about Florida’s theme parks.

As Milton approaches, construction cranes in St. Petersburg are a concern

In St. Petersburg, the mayor is concerned about how some giant construction cranes will fare, as there was no time to lower the machines ahead of time.

“Due to Milton’s rapid intensification and potential wind speeds, there is a risk related to some of the construction cranes that are operating in our city,” Mayor Kenneth Welch said at a Tuesday briefing.

The cranes susceptible to high winds are at four construction sites and “residents near those four construction sites are at risk for those cranes malfunctioning during the storm,” Welch said.

Since there wasn’t enough time to take the cranes down, they will be placed in a “weather vane” position, which is the safest one during a storm, he said.

How many people are affected by the mandatory evacuation order?

The 11 Florida counties under mandatory evacuation orders are home to about 5.9 million people, according to county-level population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Two Florida counties — Desoto and Marion — have ordered residents who live in mobile homes, RVs, modular-type homes and low-lying areas to evacuate.

About 30% of Desoto County’s roughly 34,000 residents live in mobile homes, while about 20% of Marion County’s more than 396,000 residents live in mobile homes, according to Census estimates.

A venture capitalist is putting up money to clear debris from Helene in his neighborhood before Milton hits

In an area where residents are bracing for a double hit from hurricanes, Clearwater Beach homeowner and venture capitalist Arnie Bellini put up $500,000 to hire private contractors to haul away debris from his neighborhood ahead of Hurricane Milton.

He said the sheer scale of the storm debris from Hurricane Helene — and the hard deadline to remove it ahead of Milton’s expected arrival — is too much for city contractors to keep up with, so Bellini said he’s doing what he can.

Piles of ruined refrigerators, furniture and drywall lines the streets of the neighborhood in Clearwater Beach, mounds of metal sheeting and two-by-fours left behind by Hurricane Helene that could turn into storm-powered shrapnel if it’s not hauled away before Milton hits.

Bellini said he hopes his effort sends a message to other residents and business owners to do what they can to restore their storm-battered communities.

Biden says Milton ‘could be one of the worst storms in 100 years to hit Florida’

Biden participated in an Oval Office briefing Tuesday with a series of top administration officials to discuss the federal government’s ongoing response to Hurricane Helene and preparations for Hurricane Milton.

The president told reporters afterward of Milton, “My priority is to increase the size and presence of our effort.”

Biden postponed a planned trip later this week to Germany and Angola because of the storm, explaining, “I just don’t’ think I can be out of the country at this time.”

He said he still planned to make his scheduled trips, though when he’d do that is unclear.

Biden also spoke about misinformation and disinformation surrounding the federal response to Helene, which Vice President Kamala Harris has blamed on her Election Day opponent, former President Donald Trump. Biden said of such misinformation, “Those who do it do it to try to damage the administration.”

Asked about Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has complained about Harris’ comments about Helene, Biden said DeSantis “has been cooperative” and “said he’s gotten all that he needs.”

Biden said he told DeSantis, “You’re doing a great job” and “we thank you for it” and said he gave DeSantis “my personal cellphone number.”

The University of South Florida’s football game Saturday against Memphis has been rescheduled

The game in Tampa has been rescheduled to Saturday, Oct. 12.

The American Athletic Conference and teams will assess the conditions and overall situation after the storm passes to determine whether any other adjustments need to be made, the school announced Tuesday.

The latest National Hurricane Center advisory on Milton

The National Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. Tuesday that Hurricane Milton was about 520 miles (835 km) southwest of Tampa. It had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and was moving in an east-northeast direction at 9 mph, the hurricane center said.

The center said a storm surge warning has been extended southward along the East Coast of Florida to Port Canaveral. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini, the center said.

The hurricane was a Category 4 storm at late morning Tuesday, the center said.

“While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida,” it said.

It’s a race against time to clear debris as Hurricane Milton approaches

Nick Szabo’s fleet of excavators and dump trucks got to work at about 6:30 am on Tuesday, racing against the clock to haul away the three-foot-high piles of waterlogged couches, appliances, mattresses and two-by-fours that line the streets in this residential stretch of Clearwater Beach — all left behind by Hurricane Helene.

“All this crap is going to be missiles,” if they don’t haul it away ahead of Hurricane Milton, he said. “It’s like a spear coming at you.”

Szabo said he was hired by a local resident eager to help clear the roads — and unwilling to wait for overwhelmed city contractors to get the job done.

His team hauled away some 260 tons of debris as of 5 pm on Monday and they plan to keep working until 7 pm on Tuesday.

“It feels good to help,” Szabo said.

A couple’s vacation has turned into them being stuck in Florida as Milton approaches

It’s easily the worst vacation John Fedor and his wife Laura have ever been on. After losing their phone on a Caribbean cruise, they missed their flight home to Philadelphia – and then missed the flight they rebooked Tuesday morning, after the bus they took to the Tampa airport was delayed.

“It’s just been utter hell,” Fedor said.

With the city’s airport closing its doors at 9 am on Tuesday, the Fedors are among those who are now stuck in this city ahead of a major hurricane the likes of which the Tampa Bay region hasn’t seen in a century.

“We looked into driving home, taking the train home,” he said, but nothing worked out.

“We don’t really have a whole lot of options … we’re kind of like stranded here.”

President Biden postpones trip to Germany and Angola because of hurricane

President Joe Biden is postponing a planned trip to Germany and Angola to remain at the White House to monitor Hurricane Milton, which is bearing down on Florida’s Gulf Coast, the White House announced Tuesday morning.

Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the change was necessary “given the projected trajectory and strength” of the storm.

It wasn’t clear when the trip might be rescheduled. Biden had promised to go to Africa during his term in office, which ends in January.

An unusual hurricane season goes from ultra quiet to record busy and spawns Helene and Milton

Explosively intensifying Hurricane Milton is the latest freaky system to come out of what veteran hurricane scientists call the weirdest storm season of their lives.

Before this Atlantic hurricane season started, forecasters said everything lined up to be a monster busy year, and it began that way when Beryl was the earliest storm to reach Category 5 on record. Then, nothing. From Aug. 20 — the traditional start of peak hurricane season — to Sept. 23 it was record quiet, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Then five hurricanes popped up between Sept. 26 and Oct. 6, more than double the old record of two. On Sunday and Monday, there were three hurricanes in October at the same time — something that never happened before — Klotzbach said. In just 46.5 hours, Hurricane Milton went from just forming as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a top-of-the-charts Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds and then it got even stronger.

“I was looking as far back as the Atlantic records go and there’s not really any good analogs for this season, just how neurotic it’s been,” Klotzbach said. “You know, obviously the season ain’t over yet. We’ll see what pops up after Milton.”

▶ Read more about this unusual hurricane season.

Schools in Sarasota County, which could suffer a direct hit from Milton, will be closed all week

“We will let you know — as soon as possible — about school reopening after Hurricane Milton has passed. Our facilities team will need time to safely conduct countywide assessments on all of our sites to ensure our traditional public schools and offices are safe to welcome back students, teachers, and staff members,” the district said in a Facebook post.

The county was also urging residents in evacuation zones to seek shelter. The county is setting up evacuation centers, but those should be viewed as “last resort,” county government said in a statement.

FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell says the agency is moving staff and supplies into place in advance of Milton

And Criswell pleaded with residents to listen to their local officials for guidance on what to do as the storm bears down.

“This is an extremely dangerous hurricane,” Criswell said Tuesday morning. “I need people to listen to their local officials to get out of harm’s way… People don’t need to move far. They just need to move inland.”

Authorities in the Mexican state of Yucatan reported only minor damages from Milton

The hurricane remained offshore early Tuesday. Power lines, light poles and trees were knocked down near the coast, and some small thatched-roof structures were destroyed, according to Yucatan Gov. Joaquín Díaz, but he did not report any deaths or injuries.

Are residents ready?

While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa hasn’t been in the direct path of a major hurricane in over a century.

In that lapse, the area has exploded in growth. Tens of thousands of Americans moved to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many choosing to settle along barrier islands near Clearwater and St. Petersburg overlooking the normally placid, emerald Gulf waters. More than 51,000 people moved to the area between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-largest-growing U.S. metropolitan area, according to U.S. Census data.

Longer term residents, after having experienced numerous false alarms and near misses like Irma in 2017, may be similarly unprepared for a direct hit. A local legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who once called the region home and used to build mounds to keep out invaders have largely protected the area from major storms for centuries.

MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is the “black swan” worst-case scenario that experts have worried about for years.

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This item has been updated to remove erroneous information about barrier islands.

Control the path and power of hurricanes like Milton? Forget it, scientists say

Hurricanes are humanity’s reminder of the uncontrollable, chaotic power of Earth’s weather.

Milton’s powerful push toward Florida just days after Helene devastated large parts of the Southeast likely has some in the region wondering if they are being targeted. In some corners of the internet, Helene has already sparked conspiracy theories and disinformation suggesting the government somehow aimed the hurricane at Republican voters.

Besides discounting common sense, such theories disregard weather history that shows the hurricanes are hitting many of the same areas they have for centuries. They also presume an ability for humans to quickly reshape the weather far beyond relatively puny efforts such as cloud seeding.

“If meteorologists could stop hurricanes, we would stop hurricanes,” Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, said. “If we could control the weather, we would not want the kind of death and destruction that’s happened.”

▶ Read more about the power of hurricanes.

How bad is Milton’s damage expected to be?

The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is especially vulnerable to storm surge.

Hurricane Helene came ashore some 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle and still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.

Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay. That’s the highest ever predicted for the location and nearly double the levels reached two weeks ago during Helene, hurricane center spokesperson Maria Torres said.

The storm could also bring widespread flooding. Five to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain was forecast for mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) expected in some places.

Gov. Ron DeSantis assures residents there’s enough fuel for them to get away from Hurricane Milton

“There is no fuel shortage. Fuel continues to arrive in the state of Florida” despite long lines at gas stations, DeSantis said at a Tuesday morning news briefing. He said officials are working with fuel companies to continue bringing in gasoline.

“You do not have to get on the interstate and go far away,” DeSantis said. “You can evacuate tens of miles; you do not have to evacuate hundreds of miles away. You do have options.”

DeSantis said the state has helped evacuate more than 200 health care facilities in Milton’s path and that 36 county-run shelters are open.