There's plenty of forecasting expertise, so why not use it?

An offer we shouldn't refuse! In a recent interview in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Walter Metcalf, chairman of the Bryan Cave law firm in St. Louis and future chairman of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, made an offer to Missouri's legislative leaders -- state Sen. Peter Kinder, president pro tem of the Senate, and state Rep. Catherine Hanaway, speaker of the House -- as well as Gov. Bob Holden.

He volunteered the use of the third-party independent economic forecasters of the Federal Reserve Board in providing information helpful in predicting the revenue for the next fiscal year which begins July 1 but must be budgeted during the session that begins this week.

I certainly would consider this offer of expert help worthy of consideration.

Why not take Metcalf up on his offer, along with revenue projections by Ed Robb, former University of Missouri economic forecaster, or his successor; Jim Moody, credible Missouri government financial analyst; Ray McCarthy, number cruncher for the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry; Gov. Bob Holden's analysts; Senate Appropriations Committee chairman John Russell; and House Budget Committee chairman Carl Bearden? Let's see how they cluster, average them or take your pick.

Then next year we'll publish the predictions and final results and donate $1,000 to the preferred charity of the forecaster closest to the final revenue numbers.

Any better suggestions to get this media game over?

In its Dec. 31 issue, USA Today had an article headlined "State budgets gain some wiggle room":

"Money will be the top issue again in state legislatures next year. But as state finances improve, lawmakers will tackle many issues that have been ignored during three years of budget problems.

"Thirty-six legislatures begin new sessions in January, and eight more meet by May, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Several others are expected to have special sessions.

"Lawmakers say action on major issues such as tax reform and education financing will be avoided in most states because 2004 is an election year. But smaller issues -- workers' compensation, foster care, pharmaceutical prices, high heating bills -- will get more attention now that states' financial problems have eased.

"State spending rose 4.6 percent in 2002 while revenue increased only 3 percent; that forced states to borrow billions of dollars to balance their budgets. But legislators clamped down in 2003. Spending rose only 1.3 percent in the first nine months of the year while revenue increased 1.5 percent.

"The fiscal restraint is paying dividends. For the first time in three years, most legislatures won't have to plug holes in existing budgets this year. Instead, they will focus on next year's budgets, which take effect July 1 in 46 states.

" Budgets. State finances remain precarious in some states. California, Illinois and Michigan are among states that still have sever budge problems. But the picture is brighter in other states. A few, including Washington, are even considering big spending increases.

" Tort reform. Efforts to limit damages awards in medical malpractice and other lawsuits have stalled in Congress but remain a priority among Republican legislators in many states. Nine states approved laws in 2003."

More U.S. women crack glass ceiling: For the first time since tracking began 20 years ago, U.S. women outnumber men in higher paying, white-collar managerial and professional occupations.

The gap will continue because of a self-perpetuating cycle of workplace gains for women, according to international outplacement firm Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"As a growing number move into upper management roles, those further down the ladder will reap the benefits by increasingly being targeted for advancement," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicates that, as of Nov. 30, women represent 50.6 percent of the 48 million employees in management, professional and related occupations.

In 1983, the first year the government began recording gender data for its occupational statistics, women accounted for 40.9 percent of managers and professionals.

"At the computer, women are just as productive as men," said Challenger. "This fact alone has opened up a world of opportunity for women and is bringing an end to outdated concepts like the glass ceiling."

The secret life of the AFL-CIO: We keep hearing that the AFL-CIO is suffering through a budget crunch, so here's some free cost-cutting (and even labor-saving) advice: It's cheaper to comply with federal disclosure laws than it is to sue to resist them.

The union consortium filed suit recently to block the Labor Department's new rules requiring greater union disclosure. Those new regulations took effect Jan. 1 and will require larger unions to fill out expanded ... disclosure forms -- thereby giving rank-and-file members a chance to see what they get for their mandatory union dues.

AFL-CIO chief John Sweeney has led the posse calling for greater corporate transparency in recent years, yet he and other labor chieftains are working double-time to exempt unions from similar standards. Their lawsuit labels the rules "arbitrary" and "capricious" and demands an injunction.

The irony is that the AFL-CIO is currently under deserved scrutiny for failing to report the presumably millions of dollars it has already spent lobbying Congress in recent years -- as it is required to do under the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995. Those filings are routine for Washington lobbying outfits, yet the AFL-CIO somehow didn't get around to completing them after 2001. It may be just a coincidence that this is about the same time that the labor group started working over Capitol Hill to block the Bush Administration's disclosure reforms.

In the end, all that resistance was wasted effort because Congress failed to overturn the Bush rules. [Federal legislators] were understandably less than thrilled with the thought of voting to keep union records secret. As for the lobbying oversight, an AFL-CIO lobbyist has blamed this "error" on its legal department; perhaps General Counsel Jonathan Hiatt needs a new set of legal priorities.

-- Wall Street Journal

P.S. A judge has given the unions a one-year reprieve for complying with the reporting rules.

Danny Dutton's third-grade homework assignment was to explain God. Danny seems wise beyond his years.

Explain God

By Danny Dutton

One of God's main jobs is making people. He makes them to replace the ones that die, so there will be enough people to take care of things on earth. He doesn't make grown-ups, just babies. I think because they are smaller and easier to make. That way he doesn't have to take up his valuable time teaching them to talk and walk. He can just leave that to mothers and fathers.

God's second most important job is listening to prayers. An awful lot of this goes on, since some people, like preachers and things, pray at times beside bedtime. God doesn't have time to listen to the radio or TV because of this.

God sees everything and hears everything and is everywhere which keeps him pretty busy. So you shouldn't go wasting his time going over your mom and dad's head asking for something they said you couldn't have.

Atheists are people who don't believe in God. I don't think there are any in Chula Vista. At least there aren't any who come to our church.

Jesus is God's Son. He used to do all the hard work like walking on water and performing miracles and people finally got tired of him preaching to them and they crucified him. But he was good and kind, like his father, and he told his father that they didn't know what they were doing and to forgive them and God said "O.K." His dad (God) appreciated everything that he had done and all his hard work on earth so he told him he didn't have to go out on the road anymore. He could stay in heaven. So he did. And now he helps his dad out by listening to prayers and seeing things which are important for God to take care of and which ones He can take care of himself without having to bother God. Like a secretary, only more important. You can pray anytime you want and they are sure to help you because they got it worked out so one of them is on duty all the time.

You should always go to church on Sunday because it makes God happy, and if there's anybody you want to make happy, it's God. Don't skip church to do something you think will be more fun like going to the beach. This is wrong. And besides, the sun doesn't come out at the beach until noon anyway.

If you don't believe in God, besides being an atheist, you will be very lonely, because your parents can't go everywhere with you, like to camp, but God can. It is good to know he's around you when you're scared in the dark or when you can't swim and you get thrown into really deep water by big kids.

But you shouldn't just always think of what God can do for you. I figure God put me here, and he can take me back anytime he pleases. And that's why I believe in God.

-- From the Christ Episcopal Church newsletter

Gary Rust is the chairman of Rust Communications.