HAITI DEMOCRACY HAS ROCKY START SINCE '91 COUP

Nearly every thread that could sustain a democracy has been cut in the two years since the military overthrew elected President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

The U.S.-led military buildup off Haiti's shores and the harsh enforcement of international sanctions may just force Aristide's return from exile, although probably not by the United Nation's Oct. 30 deadline.

But establishing democracy is another matter, as is peace.

Since the September 1991 coup, the military has broken up the neighborhood organizations and peasant groups that formed the backbone of Aristide's overwhelming triumph. On his return, he'll have to build a new base.

Unions have died with the closure of most of Haiti's assembly plants. The network of Catholic churches has been stifled, with priests and parishioners alike viewed with suspicion.

"I don't dare go to pray for my country. If I do, thugs will break up the Mass and think I am praying for Aristide," said Agnes, a 28-year-old housekeeper. She only gave her first name for fear of retribution by army-backed toughs.

Political parties have either been repressed or forced at gunpoint to go along with the military. They then try to justify their actions, creating internal dissension.

Human rights organizations suffer the same split. The leader of one went into hiding after an assassination attempt Oct. 4 while a colleague became, briefly, the prime minister of a previous, military-backed government.

Most radio stations have stopped giving news, and relay stations broadcasting signals to the countryside have been silenced.

Education has been disrupted. Students have only had one uninterrupted school year since the fall of the Duvalier dictatorship in 1986. About two-thirds of the nation cannot read.

Efforts to repair roads, communications links and the economy have been halted. Power is often out for months at a time in the countryside.

A series of economic sanctions, imposed on Haiti to force the military to quit power, have deepened the suffering.

Farming of such crops as mangoes and coffee has declined.

Medical officials said 10,000 Haitians have died since the ouster, many from severe malnutrition or preventable diseases. More than 850,000 of Haiti's 6.5 million people depend on their daily meals from international aid groups.

As the diplomatic endgame plays out, the army's determination to stay has hardened. The international community has responded with warships, hundreds of Marines in training exercises and an embargo that may shut down all commerce.

The stoppage of all gas deliveries from in-country storage depots is a dramatic reflection of the rising stakes. The telephone company warned Saturday that the sudden fuel shortage may force it to shut down all phone service.

"As long as the thugs with the guns set the agenda, this country will never know peace. That's what this fight is all about," U.S. Embassy spokesman Stanley Schrager told reporters Saturday.

People who have been in Haiti for years, and remember the Sunday promenades along streets now blocked by uncollected garbage, wonder what will be left when the fight is over.

"Every day you see this nation being ripped asunder. And I don't see anybody on the scene who can sew it back together," said Chris Conrad, who runs operations here for the American aid organization CARE.

David Beard has been Caribbean News Editor for The Associated Press since February 1992.