EARTHQUAKES: IT'S BETTER TO PLAN AHEAD

Thoughts of the Big One occurring any day soon along the New Madrid earthquake fault may no longer be on the minds of most folks, but scientists tell us a devastating earthquake will occur along the fault that stretches through Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois.

Almost eight years have passed since the late Iben Browning predicted a major earthquake along the fault. The date he said it would happen -- Dec. 3, 1990 -- passed without a single rumble, but the publicity that flowed from his farfetched prediction turned the nation's attention to the volatile fault that in 1811 caused a series of the most powerful earthquakes in recorded U.S. history.

Just because it didn't happen when Browning said it would doesn't mean it won't someday. And those of us who live on or near the fault should bear that in mind. Unfortunately, some don't, according to a study done by a sociology professor at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville.

In his book, "Earthquake Fears, Predictions and Preparations in Mid-America," the professor, Dr. John Farley, found that news coverage of the quake risk has declined significantly since all the hoopla that surrounded Browning's prediction. He also found that in 1990, 51 percent of 582 people surveyed in St. Louis, Cape Girardeau and Sikeston thought a big quake was "very likely" to happen in the next 10 to 15 years. By February 1991, only 34.6 percent of them believed it was likely. And by May 1993, fewer than 11 percent in St. Louis, 20 percent in Cape Girardeau, and 25 percent in Sikeston were "very concerned" about the risk of big tremor.

While Farley's book is probably correct in that a vast majority of people aren't as worried today as they were eight years ago about a major earthquake occurring soon, it doesn't take into account the fact that people today are better educated and prepared for an earthquake than they were prior to the turn of this decade. Government and emergency officials participate in mock earthquake drills, schools prepare children for the possibility of an earthquake, building codes address the quake risk more than they ever did, earthquake insurance is a requirement on mortgaged homes, and homeowners and business owners have taken various measures to lessen the damages to buildings from an earthquake.

Preparation is a key to lessening the damages from and surviving a big quake, and the area is better off for the preparation and planning that have taken place. No one yet can predict when an earthquake will occur, but we know that sooner or later it will happen. Let's not let our guard down.