DIVIDED STATE SENATE FACES UNCERTAINTIES

With the election in the 25th District of Republican Bill Foster to the Missouri Senate, history was made in the Southeast Missouri.

Never before has a Republican held this Senate seat. Many thought none ever would representing the mostly overwhelmingly Democratic "Cotton Counties" that for so many years were a foundation of Democratic statewide majorities.

All that changed with Foster's convincing, 3,600-vote win over incumbent Jerry T. Howard, who first went to the House of Representatives in 1972 and had served in the Senate since 1990.

Foster won by rolling up large margins in Butler and Wayne counties, which he had represented in the House since 1993, while winning Howard's home county -- Stoddard -- by 56 percent.

In the three counties that make up the Bootheel, Foster narrowly lost Dunklin, 51 percent to 49 percent, and lost New Madrid and Pemiscot counties by about 60 percent to 40 percent.

Foster's election means the parties are roughly in a tie in the 34-member Senate. We say roughly because the situation is somewhat confusing. Here is the best information we have right now:

Three senators were elected to higher office in last week's election. Democrats William "Lacey" Clay of St. Louis and Joe Maxwell of Mexico were elected as U.S. representative and lieutenant governor, respectively. Republican Sam Graves of Tarkio was also elected to Congress.

The result is three impending vacancies for which special elections will need to be called by the governor, with the Constitution giving him discretion to do so not less than 10 Tuesdays later.

It is entirely possible that by the time you read this, one or all three senators may have resigned. At such time as all three have resigned (which will occur sometime between now and January), then Republicans will have a 16-15 majority, pending the outcome of the special elections.

Republicans have no chance to win the heavily Democratic St. Louis district represented for the last decade by Senator Clay.

Republicans will have the edge in winning the Northwest Missouri seat represented these last six years by Graves, although they can expect a massive Democratic effort to take the seat.

And Democrats will have the edge in holding onto the Northeast Missouri seat represented by Maxwell since 1994, although Republicans will try to find a strong candidate and mount an aggressive campaign.

If the parties hold what they have in special elections -- the outcome many would say is likeliest -- then the result will be a 17-17 tie for the balance of this session of the General Assembly and until elections are held in November 2002.

Such a tie hasn't existed in Missouri since the 1940s, but it has occurred in many states over the last 10 years. In Virginia, for example, Republicans were in the minority for 130 years, then pulled even in a tie for four years before finally winning a majority last year.

Obviously, if this is the result, things will be fraught with uncertainties.

One certainty, however, is that broadcast reports relating that state Sen. Peter Kinder of Cape Girardeau has been "elected" Senate president pro tem are misleading. Kinder has been chosen as the nominee of his party for this prestigious post, to be determined in January, if then.

Adding further uncertainty to the mix is the lieutenant governor, who will be Democrat Maxwell. This post occupies the position of Senate president under the Missouri Constitution, its occupant eligible to vote in case of breaking ties.

Much confusion and uncertainty lies ahead. We can hope cool heads will prevail amid all the wrangling.