Changing climate

By Kathy Conwayand Alan Journet

Authoritative analysis of climate science comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (World Meteorological Organization-United Nations Environment Program). Analyzing reports of thousands of scientific experts from the peer-reviewed scientific literature, it summarizes the consensus.

The latest (February 2007) IPCC report concluded: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations in increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level." It notes that 11 of the last 12 years were among the hottest 12 years on record. While global air temperature has increased over the past 100 years about 1 degree Fahrenheit, Arctic temperatures have increased at double the global average rate. Though the history of our planet has been punctuated by glacial and interglacial periods, the current warming is extreme and alarming in its speed.

The IPCC also concludes: "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely [i.e. greater than 90 percent probability] due to the observed increase in [human-produced] greenhouse gas concentrations." The major contributors are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides, the greatest being carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. CO2 has increased from a preindustrial (1750) level of 280 parts per million to 379 ppm today -- higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years (a period including ice ages and interglacial periods).

Over this period, atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations were accompanied by temperature fluctuations. As CO2 levels climbed and dipped, so did temperature. Although over the hundreds of millions of years of planetary history carbon dioxide levels have been higher than at present even as global temperatures were not, continents were then arranged differently from today, and incoming solar radiation intensity fluctuated. For the last million years, continents and incoming solar radiation have been remained relatively constant. Relationships during the recent past are therefore more relevant than those hundreds of millions of years ago.

Absent efforts to reduce production, CO2 in our atmosphere could reach 700 ppm, over double the preindustrial level. If global temperature follows suit, warming will continue at an accelerated pace.

The peer-reviewed scientific literature indicates consensus exists regarding both the current trend in global climate and the role of human activity. Although media and political commentators have confused the issue over recent years, studies reflecting contradictory views simply do not exist. The editor of Science (journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science) indicated that contradictory research is not rejected by a potentially biased scientific community. Rather, it is not submitted. The skeptics are simply not producing credible scientific data to support their skepticism. In terms of probable consequences:

• Rising sea levels may flood urban and agricultural land from Florida to California and New England, while inundated coastal Southeast Asia will produce hundreds of millions of refugees.
• As disease carrying organisms extend their ranges north and higher, expanded human health consequences will follow.
• Increased ocean temperature may enhance the severity of weather systems causing hurricanes to be more severe.
• Melting ice from the Arctic ice pack might disrupt the Atlantic Gulf Stream and turn Europe into an ice field.
• While some regions will suffer increased temperature and rainfall, others will suffer extended drought.
• Broad assemblages of plants and animals across the world (deserts, prairies, forests) are maintained by temperature and precipitation. Many support our food supply. Prairies have become the wheat and corn belt. Forests not only provide our timber, but after clearing leave land supporting agricultural production. These systems may be catastrophically disrupted. Missouri, for example, may experience a temperature increase of 30F to 70F without any change in precipitation by 2100. Our climate will be similar to that of eastern Oklahoma or eastern Texas. Already the 1990 USDA cold hardiness zones have been revised northwards. The impact on our food, fiber and biodiversity could be catastrophic.
• The U.S. Defense Department recognized that human disruption from climate change could pose a serious national security threat to this nation.
• Even now, oil corporations employ field planning that assumes sea level rises and permafrost melting.

In recognition of the growing general consensus, the 2007 Presidential State of the Union address underlined the need to "to confront the serious challenge of global climate change."

Anyone diagnosed with a life-threatening disease knows there is no merit in denial or postponement. The prudent course is to acknowledge the expertise of specialists and even amid doubt and fear submit to treatment. Similarly with climate change, the consequences of inaction (considering economic, health and environmental disruptions) are assuredly worse than the consequences of appropriate action.

Every time we turn on an electric switch or press the gas pedal, we release carbon dioxide. With commitment each of us can make a difference. We can reduce our energy use and save money.

From California to Maine, Americans are coming together in nonpartisan efforts to confront climate change. In Southeast Missouri, it's time for us to make a difference. In Southeast Missouri, are we ready to do our part? If you think so, please join us. In March, Cape Girardeau Mayor Knudtson will sign a proclamation endorsing the initiative. The Cape Girardeau Chamber of Commerce will join us. Regardless of your politics, please come to our meeting at 7 o'clock tonight in the Hirsch Community Room of the Cape Girardeau Public Library. We will explore what we can do. Please bring issues and concerns and join a working group to address them. Visit: cstl.semo.edu/SEMOCPI.

If not us, who? If not now, when?

Kathy Conway and Alan Journet have lived in Cape Girardeau over 20 years and teach at Southeast Missouri State University, Conway in the Department of Elementary, Early and Special Education and Journet the Biology Department and Environmental Science Program. They are facilitators for the Southeast Missouri Climate Protection Initiative.