BETTER TIMES ARE COMING IN '90s' NEW GLOBAL ECONOMY

Our community lost one of the finest of our good guys this past week, when longtime Cape Girardeau merchant Bill Shivelbine died. Bill combined with his brother Freck and other family members to establish one of Cape's venerable retail stores which, now in its fifth decade, continues to enjoy the excellent reputation the Shivelbines have earned.

Life was much more than business to Bill. Bill Shivelbine was a devoted family man from an old Cape family who raised his children here, and quietly worked for and contributed to community causes, while caring nothing for getting any credit. We shall miss his friendly greeting and fine example, and cherish good memories of a good man.

Our sympathy goes out to Lou Shivelbine, to Freck and to the entire family.

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Speaking of good guys, another lifelong Cape Girardeau resident will be having a retirement reception this Sunday afternoon at the Cape Girardeau Country Club. Longtime Cape schoolteacher, guidance counselor and director of special services Calvin Chapman will be honored at the reception, which lasts from 3 till 6 p.m.

Calvin's career has touched the lives of countless thousands of students, all of whom are better off for it. It seems like an early, though well-earned, retirement; you just know that Calvin has still more important contributions left to make.

I'll see you there as we turn out to show Calvin our appreciation for his years of service.

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Better times are coming soon for Main Street businesses, according to the April quarterly survey of more than 2000 small firms conducted by the nation's largest small-business advocacy organization, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

Leaping nearly 10 points, the NFIB's small-business optimism index hit its highest level in more than a year, rebounding from nearly a record low 92.6 in January to 101.8 (1978=100), seasonally adjusted. (Table 1: Small-Business Optimism Index)

"The recession will be over by the end of this quarter," NFIB President John Sloan predicted. "Small business will be hiring and stocking their shelves to handle better times."

NFIB, which has more than 500,000 small and independent business members in all 50 states, has conducted the survey for 18 years. The sector it represents employs nearly half of the private, non-farm workforce and produces half of the nation's gross private product.

Based on the optimism index, an upturn in predicted real GNP growth indicates recession fears have subsided. Small firms also see no "credit crunch." Inflation is expected to decline and a strong reversal of hiring plans was found among those surveyed.

The only dark spot in the recent report came from first-quarter sales declines, the worst in the survey's history: nearly one-third (32 percent) reported higher sales, but 41 percent had lower sales volumes.

"We hope the rest of the economy will cooperate with small business to produce positive growth," Sloan said. "But that may not happen until the third quarter."

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Nationally respected economist Murray Wiedenbaum, of Washington University's Center for the Study of American Business in St. Louis, had some interesting and positive comments on our economy at a conference in St. Louis recently. Dr. Wiedenbaum served as chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors in Reagan's first term. He emphasizes that, "The global marketplace is no longer just a prediction or a buzzword, it is here now."

Wiedenbaum says more than half of all products and services produced in the United States have one or more foreign components. He offers as further proof that half of the 110,000 employees of Xerox work on foreign soil. Half of Sony's employees are not Japanese. A third of GE's profits arise from its international activities.

Wiedenbaum continued: The Otis Elevator division of United Technologies developed a new product in several locations. The French division worked on the door systems. The Spanish division handled small-geared components. The German division dealt with electronics. The Japanese unit designed special motor drives. Connecticut engineers handled systems integration. The international teamwork resulted in efficiencies that cut the development cycle in half and saved more than $10 million in costs, according to Wiedenbaum.

Volkswagen assembles some Porsches, and also produces cars with Ford for the Brazilian market. Ford is designing a new minivan with Nissan. Mitsubishi is heavily invested in U.S. auto production with its partner, Chrysler. And on and on.

Wiedenbaum concluded with this pertinent reminder: "Here at home we are so conscious of our limitations budget deficits, trade deficits, serious social problems. But there is nothing like a trip overseas to remind us of the strong positives going for us."