We worry a lot -- as we should -- about what is going on in Russia. Does democracy exist and can it survive?
Add yet another worry to our list -- Ukraine. It's a vast nation with a population of nearly 52 million, almost as big as France or the United Kingdom.
Ukraine is in a state of economic and political turmoil. The operating constitution of this new country is a version of the constitution of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, amended so often that it is barely recognizable. Everyone agrees that the existing constitution is incapable of working, but a new document cannot be agreed upon. The lines of authority among the national branches of government and among the central, regional and local authorities are unclear, resulting in contradictory laws, decrees and practices.
The government of President Leonid Kravchuk (a last minute "convert" to capitalism) has abandoned even his minimalist attempts at economic reform. The World Bank declares Ukraine to be in a state of "hyper depression." Inflation is now 90 percent a month. Energy supplies -- now paid for at unsubsidized world prices -- have to be rationed. Industrial production is 33 percent lower this year than last and last year was 20 percent below the preceding year.
Against this background, Ukraine held the first round of parliamentary elections last week, with runoffs to come on April 10.
Political parties as such are tissue-paper weak. In last week's balloting, 5,833 candidates sought election in 450 single-member district votes, and 90 percent of them were not affiliated with any political party.
With a swarm of weak parties and with thousands of individuals running unaffiliated, it's virtually impossible to find a cohesive winner. It's easier to find some losers -- especially one.
By any yardstick, Kravchuk is the biggest loser. He was certain that the confusion of the electoral process would generate a low turnout. He banked on a low turnout to show that he was needed in power as a strong rule-by-decree leader of an apathetic nation. He was wrong. Voters weren't apathetic; they were angry. More than 75 percent of the people turned out at the polls. (In the U.S. we are now used to a 50 percent turnout in presidential elections.) The high voting rate is viewed as a repudiation of Kravchuk.
Some of Kravchuk's most bitter rivals performed extraordinarily well in the elections. The former prime minister, the former speaker and former deputy speaker of the parliament, several dismissed reform advisors to Kravchuk -- all won in their districts with sizable majorities. Some of these men are already lining up to challenge Kravchuk.
Ukrainian solidarity -- which for a fleeting moment when Ukraine broke away from the USSR was assumed to be strong -- took a beating in the election. Eastern and Western Ukraine are as different as Quebec and Ontario. In the East there is an abundance of ethnic Russians and a desire to identify economically and maybe even politically with Russia. Western Ukraine is the hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism. Winning candidates in both regions reflected distinctly different antagonistic views as to the future of their nation.
Crimea held its own special, extra election. This southern peninsula was the primary resort destination for the Soviet elite. Under Joseph Stalin, Crimea was officially Russian territory. It was ceded to Ukraine in 1954 -- at a time when Moscow ruled Russia and Ukraine and the move was purely symbolic, in commemoration of the 300th anniversary of the union of Ukraine and Russia.
Today over two-thirds of the people in Crimea are ethnic Russians including thousands of retired naval personnel from the Black Sea Fleet. In order to assuage separatist sentiments, Kravchuk has permitted Crimea to exercise a limited degree of self-rule.
Crimean voters had the opportunity to express themselves in a non-binding proposition on the ballot and by landslide proportions they declared their desire for even more independence from Kiev and their wish to have dual Russian-Ukrainian citizenship.
Kravchuk had a political mess on his hands as he went into the elections. The voters made his troubles much worse.
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