Oscar contenders for 2003 much like last year's

LOS ANGELES -- The Academy Awards race looks like a rematch of 2002's Oscar season.

Last year's best-picture contenders included the musical "Moulin Rouge," the sword-and-sorcery adventure "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," the revenge story "In the Bedroom" and eventual winner "A Beautiful Mind," a film biography of schizophrenic mathematician John Nash.

This time, leading prospects for nominations Feb. 11 include the musical "Chicago," the fantasy sequel "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers," the vengeance epic "Gangs of New York" and "The Hours," a drama about suicial author Virginia Woolf.

Nicole Kidman of "The Hours" and Renee Zellweger of "Chicago" seem likely to score their second straight nominations.

Kidman's co-stars, Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore, each could grab two nominations. A single nomination would lift Streep into the record books as the most nominated actress ever.

With the most nominations among males -- 11 -- Jack Nicholson probably will pad that total with a best-actor nomination for "About Schmidt." A win for Nicholson would tie Hepburn's record of four acting Oscars.

A rundown of key categories and predictions on how the nominations will shake out:

Best Picture

Four films seem to have a lock on five of the nominations: "Chicago," "Gangs of New York," "The Hours" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers."

"Adaptation" and the Holocaust drama "The Pianist" each have a decent shot at the fifth slot. But while many critics love the absurdist plot of "Adaptation," the film might be too weird for academy voters' tastes. Detractors of "The Pianist" found it overlong and a bit repetitive.

Likewise, while "About Schmidt" and "Far From Heaven" have drawn raves for their performances, reaction has been mixed to the overall films.

Predictions: "Adaptation," "Chicago," "Gangs of New York," "The Hours, "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers."

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis for "Gangs of New York" and Jack Nicholson for "About Schmidt" are sure bets.

Four actors appear to be the lead contenders for the other three spots: Nicolas Cage for "Adaptation," Adrien Brody for "The Pianist," Michael Caine for "The Quiet American" and Richard Gere for "Chicago."

Leonardo DiCaprio has a chance, most likely for "Catch Me If You Can" rather than his other movie, "Gangs of New York," in which he's eclipsed by Day-Lewis.

Past Oscar favorite Tom Hanks seems out of the running, since he has not caught much awards attention for "Road to Perdition."

Predictions: Cage, Caine, Day-Lewis, Gere and Nicholson.

Best Actress

Another category with four fairly certain picks for five of the nominations: Nicole Kidman, "The Hours"; Julianne Moore, "Far From Heaven"; Meryl Streep, "The Hours"; Renee Zellweger, "Chicago."

The fifth nomination probably comes down to Salma Hayek for "Frida," a film biography of Mexican painter Frida Kahlo, and Diane Lane for the adultery thriller "Unfaithful."

Predictions: Hayek, Kidman, Moore, Streep and Zellweger.

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper of "Adaptation" and Ed Harris of "The Hours," lead the pack.

A worthy performance and the grand-old-man factor bode well for Paul Newman's chances for "Road to Perdition." Alfred Molina of "Frida," Dennis Quaid of "Far From Heaven" and Christopher Walken of "Catch Me If You Can" also have strong prospects.

John C. Reilly had three choice supporting roles, the best of them in "Chicago," which could grab him a nomination.

Predictions: Cooper, Harris, Molina, Newman and Quaid.

Best Supporting Actress

Again, four front-runners have the inside track: Kathy Bates, "About Schmidt"; Julianne Moore, "The Hours"; Meryl Streep, "Adaptation"; Catherine Zeta-Jones, "Chicago."

Queen Latifah also could score a nomination for "Chicago."

Other possibilities include Patricia Clarkson, "Far From Heaven"; Cameron Diaz, "Gangs of New York"; and Michelle Pfeiffer, "White Oleander."

Predictions: Bates, Clarkson, Moore, Streep and Zeta-Jones.

Best Director

Three certainties: Stephen Daldry, "The Hours"; Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers"; Martin Scorsese for "Gangs of New York."

The other two nominations likely come down to Spike Jonze for "Adaptation," Rob Marshall for "Chicago," or Roman Polanski for "The Pianist."

Longshots include Todd Haynes for "Far From Heaven" and Alexander Payne for "About Schmidt."

Predictions: Daldry, Jackson, Jonze, Polanski and Scorsese.

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