What polls show about Tim Walz and JD Vance before Tuesday's VP debate

WASHINGTON (AP) — Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential candidate, is less popular among voters than his Democratic rival, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Both Vance and Walz entered the spotlight this summer as relative political unknowns. As both running mates prepare to address a huge audience in next week's vice-presidential debate, Democrats are more positive about Walz and Vice President Kamala Harris than Republicans are about Vance and former President Donald Trump.

The findings of the new survey reinforce the challenge for the Republican presidential ticket as voting begins in more and more states.

Vance is less well-liked than Walz

The poll shows that negative feelings about Vance are considerably more widespread than positive opinions. About half of registered voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Vance, up from about 4 in 10 in late July, while around one-quarter have a somewhat or very favorable view of him, and a similar share don’t know enough to say.

Walz, by contrast, is better liked. About 3 in 10 voters have a negative view of Walz, while about 4 in 10 have a positive opinion and about 3 in 10 don’t know enough to say.

That difference in favorability extends to the candidates' bases. About 7 in 10 Democratic voters have a positive opinion of Walz, compared to about 6 in 10 Republican voters who have a favorable view of Vance.

Walz is stronger than Vance among men and women

Democratic candidates tend to receive more support from women, while Republicans perform better among men. That gap is clear in Trump and Harris' favorability numbers — but Walz is better liked than Vance among both men and women.

About 4 in 10 male and female voters have a positive view of Walz, while about 3 in 10 men and about one-quarter of women have a positive view of Vance.

Walz also has a popularity advantage over Vance among voters over the age of 60. Half of voters in this group view Walz somewhat or very favorably, while about 3 in 10 have a similar opinion of Vance.

Walz is a little weaker than Harris among Black voters and women

Despite his strength over Vance in some areas, there are also some key Democratic groups where Walz still has work to do. About three-quarters of Black adults have a favorable view of Harris, while roughly half say the same about Walz. She is also viewed more positively by women; about 3 in 10 women don't know enough about Walz to have an opinion.

In general, though, neither of the vice-presidential candidates outshine Harris or Trump among major demographic groups, and they remain less well-known than the presidential nominees, even among groups that are traditionally part of each party's base. For example, about one-quarter of white voters without a college degree don't know enough to say about Vance, and around 4 in 10 voters between the ages of 18 and 29 don't have an opinion on Walz.

This means their popularity could continue to shift as their national profiles rise.

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The poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-16, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.