Update: Memorial Day weekend weather looks mostly wet; high-end severe weather possible Sunday

The National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky, has issued a hazardous weather outlook for the region that includes Southeast Missouri, covering the entire Memorial Day weekend.

The NWS is predicting chances for thunderstorms and showers through Monday, with an eye toward Sunday as having the largest potential for dangerous weather.

For Friday, the NWS puts the region at a slight risk for severe weather, adding that damaging winds and large hail pose the biggest concern, though the possibility of a tornado cannot be ruled out. The chances for Saturday thunderstorms are greatest in the early morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, showers are probable.

The NWS is watching how weather in the Plains and upper Midwest moves Saturday into Sunday, and how much instability lingers from Saturday’s cold front. On Friday morning, the NWS said numerous thunderstorms were expected Sunday afternoon and night.

"Supercells are expected initially, but they will quickly form into a line and move east or southeast across the region," the NWS stated in its hazardous weather outlook. "A few high-end severe events, 2-inch diameter hail, 75-plus mph winds, and EF2 or greater tornadoes will be possible, especially over the northeast half of the region. In addition, torrential rains could lead to some isolated flooding problems."

A “marginal risk” exists for isolated storms on Saturday, but it is expected to be mostly sunny.

The Cape Girardeau area is at an "enhanced risk" for severe weather Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, according to the National Weather Service severe outlook for Sunday. Tornadoes and flash floods are possible.

National Weather Service

The models the NWS use to predict the weather are showing discrepancies for the weather for Memorial Day. There is a chance of storms Monday, but the area could avoid rainfall. The best chance of rain on Memorial Day looks to be in the afternoon.