Friday Update: NWS says tornado risk increases as models come into focus

The National Weather Service is getting a clearer picture of the weather conditions leading into tonight (Friday) and Saturday, and the models are painting a “very volatile situation”.

A significant severe thunderstorm outbreak is likely this evening and into tonight for Southeast Missouri. The threat for tornadoes has increased. Information provided by the weather service said there is a 15-29% that a tornado will appear within a 25-mile radius of a point within an area that extends west to Rolla, south to Poplar Bluff, north of St. Louis and east to Mt. Vernon, Illinois. The NWS still considers the area to be in a “moderate risk” which is the fourth level in a five-level scale.

The weather is expected to arrive after the regular work day and school day ends.

“One of the ingredients that looked less favorable, the low level moisture, has now trended up with dewpoints forecast to reach at least into the low-60s,” the NWS stated in its Area Forecast Discussion from the Paducah, Kentucky office. “This will lead to greater instability.”

It described the “Storm Relative Helicity”, a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells, as “quite concerning.”

The larger Paducah weather region is likely to see a combination of linear and supercell systems. Tornadoes and hail of 2 inches or larger are possible.

The NWS is warning of “very impactful” gradient winds that will develop this afternoon and evening. These winds may exceed 50 miles per hour.

Another round of severe storms are possible on Saturday, but the main threats will be across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

Today’s high temperature will approach the low-80s, which could set records in some locations.

The NWS suggests that people closely monitor the weather and forecast updates through the day, adjust plans accordingly.