Oil supplies still a major concern

To the editor:

Last winter President Bush spoke of our dependence on foreign oil (60-plus percent is imported), emphasizing the role of unstable or unfriendly countries as suppliers. While true, there is much he left unsaid. The price of crude rose from $10 a barrel in 1999 to $78 last summer, mostly due to increased demand and inadequate supply. Moreover, many experts believe that the world is now producing near capacity with little ability to increase and sustain production of light sweet crude (cheap oil). This situation is complicated by a voracious and ever increasing demand from China, our own increasing needs and the inevitable approach of production decline worldwide. I'm sketching a highly volatile situation, involving the single most essential factor at the very core of our economy and our lives.

The vast bulk of the world's remaining oil reserves lie in the Middle East. (Note that ANWAR is virtually nothing.) Whether you believe that we invaded Iraq for long-term influence over the region's oil or not, you'd better understand that it's about oil now. I believe that whether we stay in Iraq or leave, the situation will continue to deteriorate, with the most likely outcome being the dissolving of the country along ethnic and religious lines. This scenario has significant potential for inflaming larger unrest in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia (one of our top suppliers), thereby driving up the price of oil and inflation in the United States. This is what the president's speechwriter didn't tell you.

ROBERT POLACK Jr., Cape Girardeau