MDC makes decisions that count

Whether you are counting your credit card transactions, counting your calories or counting on your holiday bonus, counting is a big part of our lives.

Counting is important to state biologists and managers because it provides a way to measure what we have today and compare it to what we will have tomorrow.

Like counting coins, you need to have some organization to your counts. Simply using a bag with a written value doesn't provide the bank with the information it needs. The paper rolls, divided by coin type, are a more reliable method for gathering information about the value.

Some of us store counts by memory. However, that memory can be replaced with other things and then the counts become unreliable or forgotten.

Counts from biologists are stored on paper and computers and often stored by topic and organized in files. That way biologists and managers can retrieve the counts easily.

The Missouri Department of Conservation is involved in situations that require data to make decisions such as regulation changes, management direction and program evaluation. "How many?" is the most common question asked. For example, "How many deer are harvested?" or "How many deer can I harvest?" are asked every year. For these questions, the data needs to be long-term, specifically repeated and repeatable. This is known as monitoring. We all use monitoring. For example, fuel gauges, clocks and thermometers are some common monitoring items. We do this because monitoring certain items helps to predict future questions like: "Can I make it to work on the fuel in my tank?" or "What is the average temperature in Florida in December?" or "Do I have time to deposit my check before the bank closes?"

Without monitoring we would be guessing at a lot.

Monitoring data provides useful information to all of us. If we monitor miles per gallon and notice a drastic drop, we would likely realize that something is wrong with the vehicle.

Biologists monitor populations much the same. If we notice a decline in catch, we know something is wrong and will attempt to identify the reason.

Our daily tasks often are made easier if we monitor things like weather, but many of our tasks can be made easier by using monitoring for prediction. For example, many of us will stop mowing the grass this time of year because we have monitored grass growth during cold temperature. However, what if we wanted to predict the first time to mow grass in 2005? If you monitored your mowing schedule over the last few years, you would be more capable of predicting an answer. Many questions can be answered using previous monitoring data. For example, what was the maximum stage height of the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau on Dec. 10? The answer is 27.93 feet.

However, some questions require long-term monitoring to provide an accurate answer. For example, since 1900, which month has the highest number of days at flood stage on the Mississippi River near Cape Girardeau? The answer is April. If we only looked at 2001 to 2003 data, we would have stated May.

Long-term data averages out the unusual data and helps reduce untrue conclusions. Our predictions are limited without the use of long-term monitoring data. If we want to predict something that only happens infrequently, we need to capture the event when it occurs. Change is certain but unpredictable. If we can predict change, then it will be less of a surprise. The MDC uses monitoring data, both short and long-term, to predict answers about many questions.

Time is often the most costly monitoring item. Time cards and time-clocks are easy ways to monitor time. Without counts of hours spent on tasks, many businesses and agencies would not know how to allocate funds. I have heard it said that it is easier to fund a crisis than to fund prevention. However, if funds are allocated to monitoring for prevention, many crises could be predicted before they occur.

Like many of us, MDC counts and monitors items important for making future decisions. Counting can be done at local levels and at a statewide level. Some Missourians are active participants on programs that are sponsored by MDC (e.g. Stream Teams). These programs collect count data that are important to making decisions about our streams. The best results happen when we all work -- or in this case count -- together.

MDC uses the best available information for making decisions regarding the management and conservation of fish, forest and wildlife resources of Missouri. Many decisions that are made are a product of repeated counts or monitoring.

When regulation change occurs or management efforts affect you, you may wonder whether it is the best approach that the agency could have taken. Keep in mind, you cannot only be sure of it ... you can count on it.

David P. Herzog is a resource staff scientist with the Missouri Department of Conservation.