First Samurai could cement early favorite status for Kentucky Derby

NEW YORK -- Picking winners will be tough enough on Breeders' Cup day. Picking the race with the most impact is a little easier.

Just look to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the 1 1-16th-mile race for 2-year-olds that usually determines the early favorite for next year's Kentucky Derby.

First Samurai could lock up that role in today's Juvenile at Belmont Park, when the undefeated chestnut colt faces 13 rivals in his attempt to make it five straight wins.

"The Juvenile's always intriguing no matter what year it is -- as soon as it's over they start writing about the Derby," said Frank Brothers, who trains First Samurai. "The beat moves on after the race because everybody's hoping, wanting, wishing that they've got a little chance next year for the Classics."

Right now, First Samurai is looking at a huge chance. The son of Giant's Causeway is the morning-line 8-5 favorite off dominating Grade 1 victories in the Hopeful and the Champagne. The Juvenile will be a much tougher test because all the top 2-year-olds are running in the first full field since 2000.

Henny Hughes, runner-up in the Hopeful and Champagne, is back for another try, this time with a new trainer in Kiran McLaughlin and a new rider in Edgar Prado.

Among other top contenders are Del Mar Futurity winner Stevie Wonderboy, Belmont Futurity winner Private Vow and Arlington-Washington Futurity winner Sorcerer's Stone.

Brothers believes First Samurai is ready for the challenge.

"This is a totally different race than the others," he said. "He'll be facing 12 new horses, all in wonderful condition coming off convincing wins in their preps. He ran his best race in the Champagne, and we hope he'll be as good or better in this one."

Winning the Juvenile would clinch an Eclipse Award for best 2-year-old male, but it also would saddle First Samurai with the dreaded Juvenile Jinx: No Juvenile winner has won the Derby the following year since the Breeders' Cup began in 1984.

The past two years, many top 2-year-olds skipped the Juvenile, and there are those who believe their owners and trainers were avoiding the jinx. In 2003, Champagne winner Birdstone, Lane's End Futurity winner Eurosilver and Norfolk Stakes winner Ruler's Court were kept out of the race; last year, Del Mar Futurity winner Declan's Moon missed it.

Everybody's in this time.

"While I do respect history, there will be a horse that wins the Juvenile and the Derby," Brothers said. "It's just circumstances. It depends on the individual."

Jerry Bailey, who has seven Breeders' Cup mounts, had a choice in the Juvenile and took First Samurai over Private Vow.

"First Samurai is immensely talented, certainly as good as any 2-year-old I've been on," said Bailey, who counts three Juvenile victories among his leading total of 14 Breeders' Cup wins. "We'll learn a lot more Saturday."

First Samurai, purchased for $390,000 by owners Bruce Lunsford and Lansdon Robbins, won his first career start by 5 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs in July.

Then, he won an allowance at Saratoga by six lengths and the Hopeful by 4 1/4 lengths. In both races, First Samurai lugged in down the stretch but still won easily.

In the Champagne, he ran straight as an arrow and beat Henny Hughes by 2 3/4 lengths.

"He was a little unprofessional in a couple of races, lugging in and being fractious in the gate," Bailey said. "He came through that just fine in the last race, and I hope it continues."

Henny Hughes, 3-for-3 before running into First Samurai, is a worthy opponent. The son of Hennessy was sent to the lead in the Champagne under orders form trainer Patrick Biancone, and set a suicidal pace before fading in the stretch. After the race, Sheik Mohammed's Darley Stud sent the colt to McLaughlin.

"He's a very nice horse, a push-button horse," McLaughlin said. "I'm sure the pace won't be as fast this time, and we'll have to find a way to make up two or more lengths."

Stevie Wonderboy, owned by entertainer/TV executive Merv Griffin and named for singer Stevie Wonder, hasn't run since Sept. 7. The colt has two wins in four starts.

Private Vow, trained by Steve Asmussen, has won three of four, with his only loss to Sorcerer's Stone in the first career race for both horses. Sorcerer's Stone, meanwhile, is 3-for-3, for trainer Patrick Byrne.

"I always thought he'd be a Derby horse, but wasn't really thinking about the Breeders' Cup until that last race," said Byrne, referring to his colt's 8 1/2-length win the Arlington-Washington Futurity on Sept. 18.

Six weeks later, the next baby step has arrived on the long road to the Derby.