WILL THE PEOPLE ELECT PRESIDENT, OR CONGRESS?

Some of the Founding Fathers were not as democratic as conventional wisdom suggests. For example, the framers of the Constitution opted for an indirect scheme to avoid binding popular elections for Senators and the presidency.

The Constitution specified that the state legislatures, rather than voters, would pick the senators. The system was changed by a Constitutional amendment in 1913.

With respect to the presidency, something called the Electoral College was created as a check on a popular election in which the voters might make a dangerous or a potentially disastrous choice. Some of the framers went so far as to speculate that most presidential elections would ultimately be decided by the House of Representatives, which makes the choice where no one wins a majority of electoral votes. It has happened only twice: in 1801 when Thomas Jefferson won over Aaron Burr and in 1824 when John Quincy Adams defeated Andrew Jackson.

The Adams precedent is the one most frequently mentioned in the context of the three way race between Bush, Clinton and Perot. In 1824, there were four national candidates. Andrew Jackson won the popular vote, but did not get a majority of the electors. Henry Clay ran a poor fourth. He hated Jackson indeed he hated most anyone of substantial political stature. He held the balance of power and decided to side with John Quincy Adams, who had run second in both popular and electoral vote.

Clay apparently had extracted a promise from Adams that he would appoint him Secretary of State in return for the votes he controlled in the House of Representatives. Clay shouted "liar" when accused of concocting a dirty deal. Adams shouted "baseless." After Adams was sworn in, he appointed Clay Secretary of State solely on "merit." Jackson rode into the White House in 1828, in part, because of popular sentiment that he had been "cheated" out of the presidency.

Right now Ross Perot is leading in California, Florida and Texas with a total of 111 electoral votes. If he were to win these three and no more, it would be virtually impossible for Bush or Clinton to win the necessary majority of 270 votes in the Electoral College. The election would then go to the House of Representatives where each state would cast one vote.

Missouri's vote, for example, would be determined by its nine Congresspersons. The present balance is 6 to 3 Democratic. In the upcoming election, however, it could possibly shift to 5 to 4 Republican and so on with each state. Meanwhile, the Senate will pick the vice president, raising the possibility of a president and vice president from different parties and even the possibility of a Senate-selected vice president serving as acting president of the United States.

Come November, the voters will cast their ballots for Bush, Clinton or Perot. Those same voters will in reality be voting for Presidential Electors. They also will be voting for Congresspersons and Senators who conceivably I use the word "conceivably" could elect the next president and vice president of the United States. It hasn't happened since 1824. If it does, the Dow Jones will plunge 508 points more than once.