WATCH OUT FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS

There are times when geologists who keep track of tremors in the earth's crust sound like tipsters at a racetrack or professional palm readers. It is hard to forget the prediction of the "big one" that was going to devastate Southeast Missouri a few years ago.

Of course, any place that is susceptible to earthquakes -- Southeast Missouri certainly is, being on the New Madrid fault -- could have a major quake at any time. But when the experts start pinning down such events, there is a good deal of skepticism.

A few days ago, scientists in Memphis who study earthquakes announced a 60 percent chance of a damaging earthquake along the New Madrid fault within 15 years. They said new geologic findings along with historical data have improved their ability to make such a forecast.

This historical data show major quakes in this area occur within time frames that approximate a pattern. Recent studies of sandblows, deposits of sand and other debris left by previous earthquakes, help date when those events took place.

While most everyone who has heard of the New Madrid fault knows about the 1811-12 quakes that were among the strongest ever, there is evidence to suggest there have been a number of major quakes over the centuries. The most recent strong quakes in this area were in 1843 and 1895, but those didn't approach the strength of the ones earlier in the 19th century.

Any number of small tremors occur along the fault line, but most of these are barely felt and do little if any damage.

Meanwhile, in recent months experts have announced other faults in Southeast Missouri, including one not far south of Cape Girardeau near Benton.

All of the work and study that has gone into earthquakes is valuable, mostly in terms of educating builders about structures that can withstand quakes. But when it comes to making forecasts about the next big earthquake, there is little reason to think an exact time frame is realistic.

When scientists say a major quake could occur within 15 years, they also are saying it could be tomorrow. Or today. Or in 2011. Which is about when some prognosticators say Social Security will run out of money. Anyone who places a lot of stock in earthquake predictions ought to buy lottery tickets by the barrel.