TRADE `VICTORY' PROMISES MORE THAN IT DELIVERS

Last month's 11th-hour accord between Japan and the United States on automobile trade appeared on first-glance to be a U.S. victory.

After all, President Bill Clinton had threatened 100 percent tariffs on 13 models of Japanese luxury cars unless Japan's government agreed to buy more U.S. autos and automotive parts. Just when the talks seemed doomed, the trading partners -- albeit limited trading partners -- struck a deal.

Clinton immediately claimed victory for forestalling an all-out trade war that would have had global economic implications. The real effect of the agreement, if any, could take years to ascertain. The White House announced victoriously that Japan had agreed to increase its purchases of American car parts by almost $9 billion over three years. That would be a 50 percent increase, which many people consider paltry considering its over three years and current Japanese imports are so low. Also, the White House claimed, the number of Japan dealerships selling non-Japanese cars would increase by 200 next year and by 1,000 over the next five years.

Curiously, Japanese officials were left scratching their heads over the White House pronouncements. While the increases in auto-parts sales and dealerships were among the discussion topics, the Japanese said they made no firm agreements on either of those items.

If the details are hammered out eventually, it will be progress, but certainly no breakthrough in free trade, if that was this nation's aim. This U.S. trade deficit with Japan reached $66 billion last year, with more than half in the automotive sector.

The Clinton administration caved on numerical targets to measure increasing sales in Japan, something that earlier was insisted upon. That it was dropped in the final pact in lieu of "voluntary" plans by top Japanese car companies to boost purchases left that nation's negotiators ecstatic.

The only good news out of the tense trade dealings was that a full-fledge trade war between the world's two largest economies was averted, for the moment. At the same time, Clinton was able to claim a political victory with his popular, seemingly tough trade stance.

But the United States can't -- nor should it -- force Japanese companies to purchase American products. Despite the president's assurance that the trade accord proved that "hard bargaining and good faith can overcome insurmountable problems," the watered-down trade accord reached late last month only affirms that those problems will remain.