TIPS GIVEN FOR GOVERNOR'S RACE

Based on events of the past 30 days, it is possible today to write the campaign platform of the winning candidate in next year's gubernatorial election. This is possible not because of divine inspiration from some Electoral Heaven but because the mood of the electorate, both in Missouri and across the country, has seldom been as apparent and predictable.

In many elections for major state and national offices, the mood of voters has been difficult to assess. Even when voting trends seemed apparent, and thus safe for political forecasting, those casting ballots more often than not surprised and confounded the so-called experts. Witness the surprising 1948 victory of Truman over Dewey, an upset that was neither predictable nor recognizable until after the fact.

Most recently, the defeat of George Bush's good friend, Richard Thornburgh, by Pennsylvania's interim U.S. senator, a political neophyte with the unlikely name of Harris Wofford, was anything but the norm in the game of electoral roulette. A popular, two-term ex-governor who had the added qualification of being a Bush Cabinet member, Thornburgh should have been an easy winner. As a matter of fact, when the campaign started, he was leading by 44 points, only to fall 10 points behind on election day. That's a 54-point slippage in 60 days, which has to be something of a record in state campaigns.

Despite Thornburgh's apparent advantage, Wofford did the impossible because of two strategies: (1.) he ran as an "outsider" despite the fact he was the incumbent, and (2.) he injected a critical issue into the campaign against his GOP opponent guaranteed national health insurance. As it turned out, this issue, and not the non-issue of Wofford's distance from George Bush's grace and power, was all he needed to convince Pennsylvania voters he was the better qualified, even if that is debatable.

As another example, Missourians' rejection of higher taxes for public education would have been more predictable had a poll measuring voters' moods been taken closer to Nov. 5. The last such survey, made in May, showed 56 percent of those surveyed believed state government was on the right track, with only 35 percent saying Jefferson City was not headed in the proper direction. As with Harry Truman's victory in 1948, when the presumably infallible Gallup organization stopped polling three weeks before election day, the mood of voters can change overnight, particularly as voters begin to think seriously about the consequences of their actions.

Based on the results of these and other elections around the country, it is relatively easy to write the strategy for a winning candidate for Governor of Missouri next year. It should include these four salient points:

1. The candidate should first picture himself as an "outsider" even if he's been holding an office in Jefferson City for decades. Voters seem to believe that anyone totally unfamiliar with arguably the most difficult job in the state can perform it better than someone who has the advantage of public-service experience. There's no reasonable explanation for this view, but for its confirmation, ask Dick Thornburgh or Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus, who was defeated by an opponent without one moment's experience in public office.

2. Promise not to initiate any tax increases. This Catch-22 pledge relieves the candidate of proposing tax hikes, while enabling him to sign on when others do so. This tactic has worked well for the last three presidents, and there is little indication the average voter has yet caught on. It has also worked well for several Missouri governors, and it has been more than 20 years since a governor of this state appeared before members of the General Assembly to ask for a major tax increase to improve basic state services and programs. The last one to have done so was Warren Hearnes, who left office in January 1973.

3. Oppose ~~~program that is generally unpopular, even if that is because it's also generally misunderstood. Ray Mabus was foolish enough to defend every paragraph of every welfare law in Mississippi, and his opponent tarred and feathered him. One can note that Edwin Edwards even attacked public assistance programs that were inaugurated during his previous two terms in office in Louisiana. Unlike Mabus, he won.

4. Promise voters anything they want. If they want universal health insurance, promise it but under no circumstance trouble them with how much it will cost. Promise programs, but never address how they'll be financed.

We'd give odds that whichever candidate adopts these four strategies will be the next Governor of Missouri. Please note we're not saying he'll be a good one.