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OpinionDecember 15, 1991

Four years ago I argued that the litmus test of Mikhail Gorbachev's success as leader of the Soviet Union would ultimately come down to how he left power. For it was already clear then, that as a proud communist leader who had been selected and not elected to his leadership position, he could be but a transitional figure in the future of his nation...

Jon Rust

Four years ago I argued that the litmus test of Mikhail Gorbachev's success as leader of the Soviet Union would ultimately come down to how he left power. For it was already clear then, that as a proud communist leader who had been selected and not elected to his leadership position, he could be but a transitional figure in the future of his nation.

Specifically, if Gorbachev bowed from power gracefully, playing the secondary role in an open and peaceful transition, the goals he stated in his policy of glasnost and demokratizatsia would be validated, and there would be hope for his land and people in a world where democracy, capitalism and free markets - not totalitarianism and coercion - are the cornerstones of civilized society.

Last week, in the declaration of the Big Three (Slavic) former Soviet Republics to form a Commonwealth of Independent States, the final transition from Gorbachev began. It is now time for the Soviet leader to recognize he must step aside.

So I am not mistaken, let me state clearly, the death of the Soviet Union and its centralized system, symbolized in Gorbachev, is a good thing - no matter the groaning from Washington and the cries of despair from Gorbachev himself.

The birth of the Commonwealth, although fraught with many unresolved complexities, is an even better thing.

Since the failed coup in August, Gorbachev has been trying to negotiate a new union treaty, which would create a more democratic power structure in the Soviet Union, but which would also leave the central government as predominate.

The negotiations represented the frantic last attempts to maintain the historically forced Soviet union. Frustrated with Gorbachev's continuing stall tactics, however, and driven by their unsettled populations, one by one the various republics declared their independence from Gorbachev's plan.

The final blow to his attempts to patch together a new union came Dec. 1, when the people of the Ukraine voted overwhelmingly to separate. It was this vote that opened the way for the Commonwealth.

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The most important aspect of the Commonwealth, particularly as winter begins, is that it represents action and cohesion, two qualities that the Soviet center can no longer provide. And it represents a structure created in the open by the true power brokers in the former Soviet territory.

For 70 years the Soviet Union tried to fool itself and the rest of the world into believing it was an egalitarian society, comprised of different peoples who chose to come together to create a great nation. Part of this myth was that the various nationalities were treated equally within the system.

The fallacy of Gorbachev's plan to maintain a union with a strong central government is that it bought into the egalitarian myth. It assumed that the diverse nationalities of the Soviet Union could be led from above, from a single point.

The Commonwealth doesn't attempt to lead each of its member states. Instead, it concerns itself with interstate and international trade, banking, national defense and control of nuclear arms. For internal member affairs, it relies mostly upon a pledge to construct a Bill of Rights, patterned after the American model.

The Commonwealth, in its creation, also doesn't attempt to sell an egalitarian myth. Simply, the Slavic states, which have a combined population of 210 million and account for the bulk of Soviet industry, oil, agriculture, gold and other resources, set the rules. It is now the decision of the other former Soviet republics whether or not to join these Big Three. If they do, no matter how much the Big Three themselves might deny it, these other republics will knowingly be signing onto a Slavic-oriented plan.

The Central Asian states are the most likely to join. Except for Kazakhstan, which has a strong industrial base (as well as its own nuclear weapons), these states depend upon large infusions of aid from their northern neighbors to maintain their admittedly paltry standard of living. And with Kazakhstan already expressing its interest (it's important to note that Kazakhstan has a large Russian population), a decision not to join the Commonwealth could be economic suicide.

There are few obstacles to the formation of the Commonwealth. As days pass, even these few are being swept away. Most importantly, the military now appears to have taken sides with it, shifting their allegiance from the center to the republics. Soon Gorbachev will be alone in opposition.

In a week the Commonwealth already has the most important attributes of a legitimate government; simply, it holds most of the real power. It is now time for Gorbachev to give it its final legitimacy. It is time for him to resign.

The King is dead. Long live the new King.

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