THE UPS, DOWNS OF CLINTON IN POLLS

Polls -- polls -- polls. Politicians worship them if they are favorable and pretend to ignore them if they are negative. Polls can be stable and show a continuing trend or polls can be volatile and reflect a sudden reaction to fast changing events.

Historically the most volatile approval ratings pertain to the President of the United States. Since polling developed into an art form under President Harry Truman, all presidents, except perhaps Dwight Eisenhower, have had enormous ups and downs in the polls. The presidency is the one position in American politics to which the average citizen attaches his hopes and his anxieties, his confidence and his anger.

Bill Clinton, as often before in his political career, is on a polling roller coaster. Two weeks ago, he had (according to Newsweek) a 58 percent approval rating, the highest of his presidency. A week later here were the poll results according to ABC News on two specific questions.

Jan. 23: Is Whitewater a serious matter? Yes 23 percent. Did the President act illegally in Whitewater? Yes 33 percent.

March 7: Is Whitewater a serious matter? Yes 36 percent. Did the President act illegally in Whitewater? Yes 49 percent.

What happened? Whitewater percolated up from the arcane to the understandable. As long as Whitewater was some complicated gobbledygook about banks and real estate, it escaped mass appeal. A CBS news producer said, "It is one of the most difficult stories to explain that I've ever encountered." But, when the issues became "subpoena," "shredding," "cover up," and potential favoritism in governmental decision-making, then the story took on added life in the court of public opinion. When the President's counsel, Bernie Nussbaum, resigned because he was the chief strategist in the stupid handling of Whitewater by the Clinton White House, there was meat for public digestion.

A president's standing in the polls relates directly to his clout with Congress. A popular president can get a lot accomplished; an unpopular president risks being ignored. President Franklin Roosevelt accomplished much more in Congress in his first term when his popularity was at legendary heights than he did later in his presidency when the bloom was off the political rose. Despite his astonishing 1948 victory, Harry Truman had low ratings during most of his presidency and was unable to get health care reform enacted. Dwight Eisenhower, in contrast, had steady and high poll numbers. Had he desired (which he didn't) an ambitious Congressional program, he would have easily translated personal popularity into Congressional success.

John Kennedy's approval ratings were relatively high by today's standards but not high enough to give him much clout with Congress. Lyndon Johnson, however, did convert high poll numbers into the Great Society. Ronald Reagan got Reaganomics with his high numbers and got nothing when Iran/Contra made him a political has-been. George Bush, like Eisenhower, didn't want much from Congress. His 91 percent approval rating after the Persian Gulf War was parlayed into a disastrous re-election campaign where he seemed to feel he could "sit" on his old poll numbers.

Bill Clinton wants health care and welfare reform from this Congress. His health care plan is already in trouble. If, as a result of Whitewater, he slips dramatically in the polls, his chances of accomplishing his legislative agenda diminish.

For the moment, the fate of politics in America is in the hands of Special Counsel Robert Fiske, the highly respected Republican lawyer from New York. If his pace of investigation is slow and ponderous, Clinton's poll numbers could remain in the doldrums. If Fiske's pace is swift and if the result is deemed reasonable favorable to the Clintons, then the smoke will clear. Once again, Bill Clinton is on the polling roller coaster.

(NOTE: The polls also indicate that the Whitewater investigation has some risks for the Republicans. When people hear Senators Robert Dole (R., Kan.) and Alfonse D'Amato (R., NY) protest that all they are interested in is good, clean government, they express their disbelief. According to last week's ABC News poll, here's how people respond to these questions: Are Republicans "standing up for what they think is right" in seeking Congressional hearings? 22 percent Yes. Or are the Republicans "just trying to score political points against Clinton?" 58 percent Yes.)