Quake study: Interesting data

Predicting earthquakes is not an exact science. Experts have amassed a wealth of information about fault lines and the factors that produce quakes. But they have no way of telling exactly when -- or if -- the earth will shake and rumble.

Earthquakes are of particular interest in Southeast Missouri because of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which gets its name from the Bootheel town where devastating quakes occurred in 1811 and 1812. Since then, experts have variously predicted that more major quakes will occur or big quakes are less likely because of the frequent minor tremors along the New Madrid fault line.

Now two scientists report in the respected journal Science that their measurements indicate the New Madrid zone may be shutting down or seismic activity may be shifting elsewhere.

Their findings are based on GPS measurements of shifts in Earth's surface over the past eight years. Whether or not this is enough data to draw such a conclusion is just one debate their study has sparked.

For those of us who are not scientists but have an interest in quake activity because of where we live, there is an excellent resource available online at semissourian.com. Click on the weather icon at the top of the main page. This will take you to a page of weather data and radar along with a chart from the Center for Earthquake Research and Information regarding quakes in the central U.S. There also is a link to the center's listing of recent quake activity.

The fact that it has been almost 200 years since the New Madrid fault produced a major quake can be taken as good news, since there hasn't been any widespread destruction in our area, or not-so-good news, since pressure may be mounting that could produce another major quake.

This most recent study adds good information but doesn't answer the question: When will the Big One happen? Being prepared for a major emergency -- quake, tornado, flood, ice storm -- still makes good sense.