POTENTIAL SENATE CANDIDATE WAIT AND SEE

Even though John Dennis announced his retirement from the Missouri Senate four months ago, there has been no rush of candidates publicly proclaiming interest in running for his seat. Though many names are being tossed around and the final field may ultimately be crowded, for now most potential candidates are sitting back, quietly talking to potential supporters, and waiting.

Dennis' announcement July 23 caught possible candidates off guard; most of whom had said they would not run unless Dennis retired. The last few months, Dennis had been acting like a candidate for re-election and most people in the district - Democrats and Republicans - were pretty well convinced that if his health remained good, Dennis would file again next January. If any retirement announcement was forthcoming, they anticipated it later in the year.

But once Dennis, who struggled with the decision, made up his mind to retire, he saw nothing to gain from misleading voters and potential candidates about his true intentions for 1992.

Besides the unexpected retirement announcement, another reason most candidates have taken a wait-and-see approach is because no one knows what the boundaries of the district will look like.

This is a re-districting year and a commission of five Democrats and five Republicans deadlocked in trying to draw a new map of the 34 districts based on the 1990 census. A six-judge panel from the state appeals court has been meeting since early October, and can take another month to complete the job if it wants.

The make-up of the new district will determine not only whether one party has an advantage, but will also decide what geographic area might dominate. Both are factors potential candidates have to consider.

The present 27th district represented by John Dennis includes the counties of Cape Girardeau, Bollinger, Scott, Mississippi, and New Madrid. Politically, it leans Democratic, though voters in the three Democratic southern counties have consistently supported Republicans at the state and national level and show greater independence with each passing election.

It is possible that the new district will be the old 27th district because its population is close enough to the ideal size of 152,000 people new districts should be drawn for.

The map left on the table by the redistricting commission would have taken heavily Democratic New Madrid County from the district and replaced it with heavily Republican Perry County and Madison County, regarded as a swing county politically. Under this plan, the district would have a slight Republican tilt.

Other maps circulating, including one that received a serious look in the 1981 redistricting process, would put Cape Girardeau, Perry, Stoddard, and Butler counties together. It would also be necessary to add a county the size of Bollinger or Madison to reach the ideal size. Such a district would be winnable by either a Democrat or Republican candidate but would lean Republican.

Another plan is a "river district" that would include the counties of Mississippi, Scott, Cape Girardeau, Perry, and Ste. Genevieve that all run along the Mississippi River. Such an alignment could be won by a strong candidate from either party.

The judicial panel may take one of these plans or draw a completely new one; however, the result is that the new district will not likely be dominated by either party and could be winnable by the right Republican or Democratic candidate coming from the right part of the district.

Where a candidate resides will be a big factor. If the district stays the same, then the impact of Cape County's size could be offset by a candidate coming from the southern part of the district that could hold Scott, New Madrid, and Mississippi County voters together.

If the map considered by the redistricting commission is used, then the power would shift toward a Cape County candidate who would be more likely to get support of Perry and Madison County voters than a candidate coming from the south.

Using the other two plans, Cape County could still be dominant in determining the senator because of its size. In any scenario, Cape County will have at least one third of the voters.

Potential candidates will need to evaluate the new district's make-up very carefully, because many voters will look at the home county of a candidate more than party label. Also, the make-up of a new district might help a candidate win a primary, but could hinder them in a general election.

In a Cape-Scott-Mississippi-Bollinger-Perry-Madison County district, for example, a Democrat from Cape County that might be embraced as a local candidate by Republicans and independents in a general election, could have trouble getting his party's nomination against a Scott County opponent. Most primary election voting in Scott and Mississippi Counties is on the Democratic side. There are likely to be more Republican ballots cast in a primary in Cape County and considerably more GOP ballots taken in Perry County. Madison and Bollinger County could be about even in primary ballots, depending on the local races.

Among Republican candidates looking at the race are State Rep. Mary Kasten of Cape Girardeau, and Josh Bill, a Sikeston businessman. In almost any new district alignment, it would be difficult for Bill, coming from a county that votes heavily Democratic in a primary, to out-poll Kasten. The same would be true if Cape County Presiding Commissioner Gene Huckstep entered the GOP primary, instead of Kasten.

On the Democratic side, Cape Girardeau City Councilman Hugh White and 8th District Democratic Chairman R. Todd McBride of Cape Girardeau, who have both expressed interest in the Senate race, could have problems finding enough votes to win a Democratic primary if their opponent were from Scott, Mississippi, or New Madrid Counties. If New Madrid were not in the district, the Cape County Democrats could have an easier time finding votes by working Bollinger, Madison and Perry Counties.

Potential southern Democratic candidates, such as State Rep. Dennis Ziegenhorn of Sikeston and Sikeston Mayor Bill Burch, could be difficult for a Cape County Democrat to overcome in a primary. On the other hand, two or more candidates from a certain geographic area, could dilute a potential candidate's regional strength.

Three other Democrats who are giving the race some study are former State Rep. Betty Hearnes of Charleston, State Rep. Ollie Amick of Scott City, and Pat Lea, a Bootheel banker.

All of the southern Democratic candidates are more viable in a general election with the present district remaining intact. Taking New Madrid County out of the district shifts the balance of power from the three southern counties to Cape County.

There are a lot of things for potential candidates to consider before entering the Senate race and a lot of groundwork that can be laid now. But until the new lines are official, there is no reason for anyone to rush to a final decision.