Positive signs on the economic front

If many U.S. economists and others who make financial forecasts are correct, we may already be out of the recession of 2001. The problem is we probably won't know for sure for another few months, by which time we could be well on the road to full economic recovery.

Such news could be expected to have a positive impact on several areas of our lives.

One would be the stock market. Now that so many Americans are dependent on market fluctuations and their impact on retirement investments, any improvement in the overall economy would be seen as a positive sign for stocks and mutual funds.

But while the market has regained what was lost in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, it isn't showing any spurts that would indicate solid confidence that the economic tide has turned.

Keep in mind that the recession's impact seemed much worse because, during the last quarter of 2001, we were viewing everything in our lives through the lens of terrorism, a new war and the jitters of homeland security.

Continued improvement in the economy -- and confirmation that the economists are right about the end of the recession and another period of growth -- surely will have a positive impact on stock markets, giving many investors a boost after a year of dismal losses,particularly in retirement accounts.

Another way an uptick in the economy is likely to affect all of us is in budgeting for state government. Missouri isn't the only state struggling to balance spending and income after nearly a decade of runaway budgets that grew at record rates.

While any economic turnaround isn't likely to put off the belt tightening in store for the coming fiscal year, there could be some positive changes in revenue streams that finance state and local government.

Even though Missouri's tax collections dipped in January, it was the first downturn since the recession began. And even the most pessimistic projections of state revenue show an overall increase in revenue to be spent on state government. Unfortunately, spending plans go way beyond those modest increases.

If the recession is over, those skimpy forecasts for state revenue could dissolve, meaning program cutbacks might be restored.

Perhaps the main impact an end to the recession could bring to us is a change in our attitude and outlook. The double whammy -- an economic slowdown and the acts of terrorism -- has tested our endurance and resilience. With the boost that comes from more prosperous times, we are more likely to take a positive outlook on our affairs -- which in turn could help speed whatever recovery already in the works.