PENTAGON WILL BE A WINNER FROM GULF WAR'S SUCCESSES

The Persian Gulf War costs us about $50 billion, a puny figure compared to the mean billions we spent in World Wars I and II, Korea and Vietnam. Our allies are pledged to cough up $54 billion. If all of these come through, we might make a small profit on the war.

Equipment-wise, we used up a lot of our inventory. We had Patriots, Tomahawks, Tows and M.L.R.S. coming out of our ears, because we had stocked up to fight the Soviets in World War III. An abundance of weaponry will turn into a glut, as the supplemental request becomes the vehicle for loading up the Pentagon's shelves for the leaner years to come. Last year's budget summit mandated in real terms a 4 percent defense cut over the next three years. The Bush Administration hope is to cut defense spending by 25 percent over six years.

Cheney realizes that the world has changed. There is a "new world order." The Soviet threat is gone. The warning time for an attack on Europe is no longer counted in days; it's counted as never. Instead of 330,000 troops in Europe, 50,000 will someday serve as an adequate symbolic presence. As Cheney puts it, "The Soviet ability to project power beyond their borders will continue to decline ... as part of a broad strategy to improving relations with the West or ... because of the simple continued economic collapse of the Soviet Union." An imploding superpower can't wage World War III.

But, according to Cheney, Star Wars must continue. The justification is no longer Ronald Reagan's pet notion of a nationwide defense against a full-scale attack by Soviet ICBMs. The new scenario reads: if the Soviet Union slips deeper into turmoil, some renegade military units might seize a few nuclear warheads and lob them into the U.S. just for old time's sake. Beware of mad renegades. We began to develop the ABM system some years ago because, the Defense Department argued, the "mad" Chinese (remember Korea) might go on a nuclear binge. When we began to like the Chinese, then the Soviets, it was argued, might go ballistic. Weapons systems die hard. As conditions change, so do the rationales.

The Stealth bomber flies on despite the diminished Soviet threat. The Pentagon still wants a fleet of 75 at $850 million each. Despite our sea-launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, B-52s and glorious but grounded B-1s, we still need the Stealth. No new world order, no crumbling Soviet Union will stand in the way of this boondoggle.

On balance, the Pentagon is considerably better prepared to get its way than in recent years. The afterglow of the Gulf War makes Defense Department requests harder to resist. Victorious generals cannot be treated unceremoniously. Further, the methodology used in last year's budget agreement puts caps on defense and domestic programs. This year the Congress cannot transfer dollars allocated for the Pentagon and add them to politically attractive domestic spending programs. When the alternative was a weapons system or better education, you could make an attractive case for education. When the alternative is one weapon system vs. another, or one weapon system vs. a smaller standing army, the arguments lose their emotional flair.

The Gulf war may or may not prove to be a boon to democracy and stability in the Middle East, but there is no doubt that the Pentagon will be a winner, in more ways than one.