Not just nuclear weapons: Iran's emerging influence

Iran's political, religious and military leaders are preparing for a future in which their policies are no longer constrained by Western economic sanctions, meaning either they intend to abandon their nuclear weapons program -- a move that seems unlikely -- or they expect to develop the ability to field these weapons in the near term, without carrying out the final step.

Having arrived at nuclear capability, however, whether in a year, two or five, Iran's best interests may be not to move toward actual assembling of nuclear devices, but merely to perfect their capacity to do so. Absent complete certainty in the West and Israel about Iran's capabilities, elected U.S. and European leaders may not have much enthusiasm for beginning a new military conflict in the Middle East to destroy that potential.

Given the multistage process involved, Iran could truthfully say it does not have nuclear weapons, and therefore avoid attracting a military strike from the U.S. or Israel, while remaining only a few hours away from bringing together the finished components of these weapons -- which they could easily do in a crisis.

In terms of conventional means, Iran has in recent months moved to deploy more robust forces in their immediate geostrategic neighborhood. In mid-March, Iran announced the launch of a new missile frigate, the Jamaran 2, in the Caspian Sea.

The event, attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, raised the potential for confrontation in this body of water, of great importance given the massive oil and gas resources in the area. Iran and Azerbaijan have exchanged weapons fire over disputed regions of the Caspian, and the potential also is present for conflict with other states.

The Iranian navy also has plans underway for a significant expansion of its activities in the Persian Gulf and beyond, with naval maneuvers projected for as far away as the Atlantic, southern Indian Ocean [near the strategic U.S. base of Diego Garcia], and the contentious South China Sea.

While Iran remains a weak naval power, it does have long range plans to deploy a small blue water navy -- ships capable of global operations -- that could play a disruptive role in providing cover for smuggling of arms, illegal oil shipments and other contraband.

While their fleet still consists mostly of small, fast attack and missile boats, the Iranian navy and the Revolutionary Guards' Navy -- the two maritime forces at the disposal of the Islamic Republic -- have budgeted to acquire additional craft, including submarines, frigates and modern destroyers.

Iran is also in the midst of preparing its armed forces for its presidential election this summer, to choose the successor to the term-limited Ahmadinejad. Army and Revolutionary Guards' units have staged several exercises over the last few months in anticipation of urban unrest, such as that which nearly toppled the regime after the fraudulent 2009 vote that re-elected Ahmadinejad.

Among the practical training the soldiers received, as portrayed in official photographs of the event, was dragging civilians from automobiles, employing riot gear against rock-throwing crowds, placing plastic bags on the heads of protesters and evacuating military -- but not civilian -- casualties from violent encounters.

These are hardly the tactics trained on by security forces expecting free and fair elections. The fact Iran makes no effort to hide these measures indicates, as in 2009, the Iranian government expects a tepid response from the United States to its violent repression of peaceful protest.

The U.S. and its Western allies have focused so much public discussion on preventing Iran from "having" nuclear weapons, they have allowed Iran far too much room for maneuver, not only in developing its weapons just short of fruition, but also in strengthening its conventional forces.

There could very well be an apparent victory for the West, with Iran committing not to take the final steps toward assembling nuclear devices, masking real Iranian victories in overall nuclear weapons potential, as well as greater regional influence.

Persia, one of the oldest and most important civilizations in history, will always be a major regional power, but that does not mean that the West should concede maximum gains to the current regime in power in Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.

Wayne Bowen, a U.S. Army veteran, received his Ph.D. in history from Northwestern University. He resides in Cape Girardeau.