NO REPUBLICAN WILL HAVE IT EASY AGAINST CARNAHAN

Neither will have an easy task in trying to unseat Gov. Carnahan. The tax-paid advantages enjoyed by any incumbent governor are formidable. They include control of the levers of power within state government, including coveted appointments to boards and commissions, a major say in appropriations backed up by the line-item veto, a statewide publicity machine and the state airplane, to name just a few.

To these daunting obstacles, any challenger can add Missouri's new mix of extremely restrictive campaign finance laws, which generally are pro-incumbent and will, it is reasonable to predict, work to limit political competition over the next year. Certain of these laws have been struck down by a federal district court in St. Louis, but the most onerous of them remain, because the lawsuit challenging others didn't bring them before the judge. Specifically, no Missouri election has ever been held under limitations on donations to statewide candidates of $300 per individual or company for an entire, four-year election cycle. Raising funds will be enormously more time-consuming, and Gov. Carnahan begins with a six-figure lead in cash on hand over any potential challenger.

To this daunting challenge each announced candidate brings unique advantages. Of the two, Kelly is obviously the better known, having successfully run for state auditor three times since 1986. The result is higher name identification with the voters and good positioning on the tax issue against a tax-happy incumbent. Add to that a potential ability to cut into the Carnahan base among working women voters. A down side for Kelly are lingering suspicions among many party faithful about her lackluster and ultimately losing campaign for lieutenant governor in 1992. Many Republican foot soldiers felt she wasn't nearly as visible, forceful or effective that year as she should have been.

Kenney, a 40-year-old former sports hero, at least to the western side of the state, will be a fresh face to most Missouri voters, both within and without the GOP. Kenney is the married father of four earning a living in real estate after having owned and operated a cattle ranch. His record after one year is solidly conservative within the mainstream of his party. There is some evidence that Kenney's youth and background -- 1994 slogan: "From the Stadium to the Statehouse" -- give him an appeal beyond traditional GOP voters. In his first try at public office last November he easily defeated an incumbent Democratic senator, albeit a weak one who had herself won a special election to fill an unexpired term. Obviously, he faces the charge of inexperience.

The entry of two GOP candidates represents a dashing of the hopes of many party leaders for there to have been one, agreed-upon candidate to oppose Gov. Carnahan. Despite speculation, it is doubtful there will be other entrants. The 1996 primary is exactly one year off. Voters will hear lots more of these two aspirants between now and then.