NO BUDGET DANGER IN GIVING MONEY BACK

For months, a handful of state officials, including some legislators, have cautioned that Missouri's tobacco windfall might be considerably less than anticipated.

When the state settled with Big Tobacco a couple of years ago, the figure of $6.7 billion over 25 years was the one that got all the attention. Of course, the settlement was for a share of the tobacco companies' revenue during that period.

Clearly, if tobacco sales dropped, so would payments to states. Meanwhile, other parts of the agreement have forced tobacco companies to shift retail efforts in ways that are sure to decrease domestic sales. Tobacco companies aren't terribly worried, because the world market for tobacco products continues to grow, particularly in countries with little regulation.

The cautious Missouri officials had good reason to be conservative. For one thing, the post-settlement spending frenzy would, if left unchecked, quickly gobble up all the money -- and then some -- on new programs. Clearly, a shortfall in tobacco revenue would create a financial pinch in the state.

Most officials -- and the news media -- continued to use the $6.7 billion figure as if it were etched in stone. That is, they did until last week. Gov. Bob Holden's own budget forecasters broke the bad news: Current estimates are about a third less than expected: $4.5 billion instead of $6.7. The new figure also is subject to revision, because no one can really anticipate what is likely to happen to U.S. tobacco sales over the next quarter-century.

Any spending plans for the tobacco money will always be plagued by the uncertainty of future cigarette sales. It would be unfortunate, indeed, if necessary ongoing state programs were funded on the basis of tobacco proceeds. Those programs would be the first to go if tobacco money came up short.

And how stable will any state program be if it's authorized only on the contingency that there's enough money from the tobacco settlement to pay for it?

The best plan is to give the money back to the taxpayers. The tobacco settlement is intended to repay states for taxpayer-funded expenditures brought on by the use of tobacco products. Since the state has no money of its own, it never spent a dime on any tobacco-related costs. It spent taxpayers' money, and they are entitled to repayment.

Taxpayers would gladly settle for whatever tobacco payments come to Missouri year to year. And there would be no danger of counting on the money to pay for expensive new programs that would have to be scrapped when the funding came up short.