MISSOURI WATCH: TIME TO CHECK ON FORGOTTEN UMBRELLAS

Should any of Missouri's former governors pay a visit to the state's Office of Budget and Planning today, they might conclude that the millennium had already arrived. Some of our former chief executives struggled constantly to match income with spending, and these were not easy battles for several of them were forced to cut back on essential services to maintain a balance in the state treasury.

In contrast, today's officials have a relatively easy time carrying out their constitutional requirement to keep spending below tax revenue, and there is seldom a question of whether to cut appropriations for essential assistance, health or education programs. There's enough cash coming in not only to maintain these programs, there's enough left to experiment with new ones, an always-attractive move for those striving to remain in the public's favor.

Whatever other legacy he left us with, the warning sounded more than a century and a half ago by Ralph Waldo Emerson should be noted by every elected official in Jefferson City. America's highly respected essayist and poet penned these words 163 years ago:

"This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it."

For those in charge of state government, a slight revision of Emerson's wisdom might read: "The extra state revenue being received today, while warmly welcomed, should be used to prepare for a future when times are not so good and invested in public services that will not be jeopardized when hard times will return, as they most certainly will."

Emerson's words were classier, but ours may be more pertinent to the Show-Me State.

Without wide public recognition of the fact, Missouri's state government was flat on its back in the late 1980s and early years of this decade. Governors Bond and Ashcroft sweated out more budgets than any chief executive in memory, worrying whether there would be sufficient revenue to keep programs in place, and sometimes discovering that their worst nightmares had become reality.

Missouri and many of its sister states are now enjoying conditions that are close to perfect. A stable, healthy economy is spinning off tax revenues well above projections, while welfare rolls and crime reports sink to levels not seen in decades. For the most part, even health care and corrections spending, which have been expanding geometrically for much of the past decade, show signs of leveling out.

There's no question: tax revenues are up and spending pressure is down. It's a combination that makes politicians look good and makes budget directors sleep better. Missouri is swimming in money and running a constant surplus even after modest tax cuts.

The timing couldn't have been better. As our state organizes to assume full responsibility for a complex mixture of social welfare programs from Washington, the rich revenue stream, both from the feds and a good state economy, inspires confidence. The worst scenario -- trying to find thousands of welfare recipients entry-level jobs in the midst of a future sagging economy -- isn't on the horizon. At least not yet.

Perhaps it should become Capitol mantra, but someone in Jefferson City needs to begin repeating over and over again: Good times won't keep on rolling forever. Today's vibrant economy may have temporarily eclipsed some old structural problems, but they have not gone away.

Not only have these problems not gone away, there is this additional reminder: Missouri's tax system is geared to the old economy, taxing property and production more than information and services. This pattern will have to be changed.

Additionally, there is another problem. Missouri's demographic trend line continues to spell trouble. Fewer and fewer workers in their prime earning years face the increasing burden of supporting more and more retirees, not to mention a surge in school-age children.

And, finally, Washington seems to have agreed on a budget plan that presumes a shrinking flow of aid to states, counties and municipalities over time. These funds have accounted for 25 to 30 percent of state revenue in past years, so even a graduated decline in federal spending will have a significant impact on Missouri which has long maintained a lower-than-average tax revenue base.

Despite the euphoria that may exist today in our capital city, a poorly timed economic downturn would spell serious trouble, particularly in this devolutionary period, so it's no surprise that even one lone voice such as this one would recommend caution. Although others have not spoken out, at least loud enough to hear, it is reasonable to assume that caution has crossed the minds of numerous elected and appointed officials. Their voices would be welcome.

The annual state budget provides for a surplus set aside, a plan approved by voters several years ago, but until recently there has been precious little to squirrel away. The payments are larger now, but the amount now on hand for tomorrow's emergency is pitifully small, when compared to a year's spending total of nearly $16 billion. In the worst of years, the set-aside wouldn't fund the programs of the Department of Insurance, the smallest of the state's 16 agencies.

We have nearly 50 committees within the 163 member House of Representatives and nearly half that many in the state Senate, and virtually all of them study ways to spend state revenue. Would it be asking too much to consider creating one committee that would deal with saving state revenue and preparing for that inevitable day when today's good times are only a fond memory?

~Jack Stapleton of Kennett is the editor of Missouri News and Editorial Service.