MISSOURI COMMENTARY: DOLE DID WELL IN THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, BUT THE LAST DEBATE IS HIS LAST CHANCE

It isn't so much how he did in the past debate, it's how he will do in the last debate.

Bob Dole did well in his first confrontation with Bill Clinton -- but not well enough to move his candidacy forward. He a line drive single to right; he needed a based-loaded homer to left.

On the plus side, Dole showed a sense of humor that the American public had not heretofore noticed. He was knowledgeable about all of the subjects raised by moderator Jim Lehrer.

On the negative side, Dole looked to be every one of his 73 years. He could grin from time to time, but he couldn't equal the perpetual smile of Bill Clinton.

Television is not just about what you say. It is about how you say it and how you look when you say it. Like Dwight Eisenhower, Dole does not speak in fluid, complete sentences. He talks in bits and pieces. Dole is not a telegenic personality. At times he looks awkward. At times he looks severe.

Clinton is a generation younger. He was raised in the politics of the television era. He is facile with words. He knows how to use the camera.

Clinton won as much on style as on content. It's asking to the Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960. Kennedy was the clear television victor. He was stylish and attractive. Nixon, recovering from a recent illness, looked haggard and grim. He desperately needed a shave and a fresh shirt that fit. On radio (still a vestigal factor in 1960), where it was simply words versus words, Nixon was judged the winner.

Ronald Reagan could overcome the impact of his age, but Dole cannot. Yes, Reagan was old, but didn't look it or act it. Reagan knew how to use cameras. It was his life's work for decades before he became a politician.

Dole isn't Reagan. He has failed in three previous national campaigns, once for vice-president and twice for president. In each instance, Dole didn't wear well under continued national scrutiny. It defies political comprehension that Republican elders believed that an aging Dole could be recrafted into a competitive alternative to Bill Clinton.

Whatever the blemishes and embarrassments of his administration, Clinton himself is an incomparable salesman. Whatever his lack of public trust, Clinton possesses the basic skills of public persuasion.

The next presidential debate is Dole's last chance. He has had a series of chances along the way, but the chances didn't generate lasting results as measured in increased public support.

He resigned from the Senate to be "just a man" and escape the curse of a lifetime career in politics. A momentary blip, but no afterglow.

He announced his 15 percent tax cut, but the polls show that the people don't believe it will happen or, if it might, that sufficient budget cuts could be made to offset it. A blip, but no afterglow.

He picked Jack Kemp as his vice-presidential running mate as a lead in to a well-orchestrated Republican convention. Another blip without an afterglow.

The first debate was anticipated to be a Dole breakthrough. But the polls showed that the public thought Clinton "won" the debates. This time, now ever a blip, much less any afterglow.

With time running out and the gap still enormous, Dole will shoot craps. No more "Mister Nice Guy." He is already going on the attack on the campaign trail. Dole made much in the first debate of being polite and calling Clinton "Mr. President." Now, Clinton is "Bozo." "Clinton has created a moral crisis," Dole now states. In the final debate, Dole will sharpen his personal attacks on Clinton and maybe even go after Mrs. Clinton. He will be direct and confrontational.

But there are risks. A confrontational Bob Dole inescapably heightens the image of a mean Bob Dole. A mean Bob Dole has self-destructed three times before in national campaigns. In the first debate, he was praised for being less hostile than anticipated. If he turns up his natural hostility button for the second debate, he may injure himself more than he injures Clinton.

~Tom Eagleton of St. Louis is a former U.S. senator from Missouri.