MISSOURI COMMENTARY: `CONGRESS STINKS, BUT I'M GREAT'

Public and media attention is understandably focused on the presidential race. The upcoming congressional contests almost appear to be an afterthought.

A fierce battle is nevertheless under way for control of Congress -- at least half of it. The Republicans hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin. Considering the various seats at risk, the Democrats would be lucky -- very lucky -- to hold to those figures. Chances are the Republicans will pick up seats in the Senate.

It's the House, with a Republican margin of 28, where the do-or-die congressional battle will take place. In 1996, the Republicans will have the following priorities.

-- Open seats -- especially where veteran Democrats are retiring and where the demographics of the district have changed over time. In the South, for example, some long-time Democratic incumbents have decided not to seek re-election. The Republicans will focus on these seats and, based on recent Dixie election trends, they will pick up most of them.

-- Democratic where the incumbent won by a narrow margin in 1994. A couple dozen or more of these seats will be targeted.

-- Freshman Republicans. In 1994, 74 Republican freshmen were elected, compared with a paltry 13 freshman Democrats. The majority of seats in this category were won by very conservative Republicans who ousted incumbent Democrats.

The Republicans must hold onto these seats, not only to try to secure their control of the House for the next two years, but to insure it for years to come.

The 1994 and 1996 House elections are to the Republicans what the 1974 and 1976 House elections were to the Democrats.

In 1974, Watergate and the fall of Richard Nixon doomed Republican candidates nationwide. A remarkable 80 freshmen Democrats emerged from that election and these newcomers became the backbone of the continued Democratic domination of the House.

The newcomers included freshmen who later moved over to the Senate such as Max Baucus, D-Mont.; Chris Dodd, D-Conn.; Tom Harkin, D-Iowa; Paul Simon, D-Ill.; Paul Tsongas, D-Mass.; and Tim Wirth, D-Colo. The Democratic House Class of '74 included a future governor, James Blanchard, D-Mich. It included a future top presidential advisor, Abner Mikva, D-Ill. It included future House subcommittee chairman like George Miller, D-Calif.; Norman Mineta, D-Calif.; John Murtha, D-Pa.; James Oberstar, D-Minn.; Pat Schroeder, D-Colo.; Steven Solarz, D-N.Y.; and Henry Waxman, D-Calif.

When 1976 came around, the pundits wondered if the Democrats could hold onto those 80 freshman seats. They held all but four and went on to hold them for many elections to come.

A new generation of pundits wonders if the Republicans can hold on to their 74 freshman seats. If, like the Democrats of 1976, the Republicans re-elect all but four of their freshman, they will be going a long way towards insuring control of the House for the foreseeable future. If the avalanche of 1994 Republican freshmen get another term, they will become entrenched.

The GOP plan is to raise mountains of money so as to saturate all target districts with enough television, radio and direct mail and overwhelm the Democratic opposition. There is nothing really new about this. For election after election, incumbent House Democrats overwhelmed Republican challengers with money. Once upon a time, the PACs bestowed millions on the Democratic incumbents and committee chairmen.

The shoe is now on the other foot. Corporate and special interest PACs are not longer lining up to give money to Chairman Dan Rostenkowski of the powerful Ways and Means Committee. These PACs are now tilting their donations lopsidedly to the Republican incumbents. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee took in $34 million in 1995 compared to the $10.9 million raised by the comparable Democratic committee.

In 1994, with the Clinton administration in the political pits, the time was ripe for a "national alternative" to Clintonism. The time was ripe for the Contract With America.

The tables are turned in 1996. Clinton's approval rating has improved greatly. It's Congress that is now in the pits -- only 23 percent of the people polled have anything good to say about Congress or its leader, Speaker Newt Gingrich.

In 1996, most congresspersons of either party seeking re-election will return to the usual campaign theme: "Vote for me. Even though Congress strike, I'm wonderful." It's back to the future.

~Tom Eagleton of St. Louis is a former U.S. senator from Missouri. His column has been interrupted the past few weeks because of eye surgery.