No one knows, of course, whether or not Alan Greenspan is right this time. The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, whose economic policies can cause dramatic changes in markets around the world, said this week that the stock market plunge might turn out to be a positive event. He said it could have the effect of cooling off a hot trend that otherwise would have created even more problems.
Or was Greenspan right when he pronounced, earlier this month, that the economy was on an "unsustainable track," adding that continued rapid growth in the stock markets would be "unrealistic" to expect.
As usual, ask a hundred "experts" about the stock market, and county on getting at least a hundred varying answers -- even more if folks like Greenspan say different things at different times.
While investing in the stock market isn't a precise science, there are trends and factors that affect that contribute to good decision-making when it comes to investing. Some analysts are more adept than others, but too often the performance of stocks is measured on short-term performance rather than over an extended period of time.
Anyone, for example, who purchased stocks for the first time a week ago might have been stunned by the 554-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- unless the stocks purchased managed a gain in spite of the overall slide in the markets. Indeed, many investors with diversified portfolios managed to remain unscathed in the latest market gyrations.
The fact is, stock-market investing is -- and always has been -- for the long term. Any attempt to make a quick killing in stocks is little more than taking a chance similar to gambling in Las Vegas. The difference between casinos and the stock market, however, is that over the long term you can count on losing money gambling, but the long-range growth of a strong U.S. economy is likely to pay off in the stock market.
Greenspan, it turns out, may have been right on both counts. Indeed, the stock market may not be able to maintain its growth pattern of the past two years, but it is likely to remain strong and show some advances as a result of a settling-down period following this week's sharp dip.
For investors, the message remains the same: Stick with the stock market, and you will probably come out ahead.
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