Incumbency impact

By J.C. Kuessner

Conventional political wisdom holds that incumbency, although not a guarantee of retention in office, is a major advantage. For Missouri governors, however, that hasn't been the case as incumbents are batting just .500 in re-election bids.

For most of Missouri history governors were limited to a single four-year term. With the ratification of the Missouri Constitution of 1945, governors were allowed to serve two terms, but they still couldn't be consecutive. Not long after the new constitution was adopted, Phil Donnelly became the first Missouri governor elected to two terms. After winning the office in 1944, Donnelly was forced to sit out the 1948 election before voters returned him to the governor's mansion in 1952.

Following another constitutional change in 1965, Gov. Warren Hearnes became the first consecutive two-termer, winning in 1964 and again in 1968.

To date only six incumbent Missouri governors have been eligible for re-election, with three keeping their jobs and three ousted by voters. Hearnes, John Ashcroft and Mel Carnahan won second terms. Losing re-election bids were Kit Bond in 1976, Joe Teasdale in 1980 and Bob Holden in 2004. Four years after his loss, of course, Bond defeated Teasdale to reclaim the office.

The outcome of the 2008 contest between Gov. Matt Blunt and Attorney General Nixon will give incumbent Missouri governors either a winning or losing historical record in re-election bids.

While incumbency hasn't provided governors the edge one might expect, over the last three decades it has proved a clear advantage for Missouri's down-ballot statewide officeholders: lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state treasurer, attorney general and state auditor.

The last down-ballot statewide incumbent to be defeated was Ashcroft in his 1974 bid for state auditor. And Ashcroft wasn't really a true incumbent because he hadn't been elected to the post but was appointed by Bond, who was his predecessor as auditor and whose 1972 election as governor created a vacancy.

In the 33 years since Ashcroft's loss, down-ballot statewide incumbents have gone 18-0 in re-election bids.

Before Ashcroft, the last down-ballot statewide incumbent to lose re-election was State Auditor Haskell Holman, who fell to Bond in 1970. Like Ashcroft, Holman wasn't a true incumbent either, having been appointed by Hearnes following the death of State Auditor W.H. Holmes.

The last true down-ballot statewide incumbent defeated for re-election was Attorney General Norman Anderson, who won the office in 1964 but lost it to John Danforth in 1968.

In 2008, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman are up for re-election. Although recent history appears stacked against their challengers, the thing about streaks -- even long ones -- is they eventually come to an end.

J.C. Kuessner of Eminence, Mo., represents the 152nd District in the Missouri House of Representatives, where he is assistant minority leader.