Human intelligence is an imperative

The second U.S. weapons inspector, Charles Duelfor, finds that Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction. He elaborates on the findings of the previous inspector, David Kay. Saddam destroyed his chemical and biological weapons and nuclear program in 1991 after Gulf War I.

President George W. Bush premised his pre-emptive war against Iraq on weapons of mass destruction. Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz stated, "The one they all could agree upon was chemical weapons." Conventional wisdom was that Saddam, having used his chemical weapons on his own people and against Iran, still had them.

Under President Bill Clinton, the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board was instructed to monitor very closely conditions in Iraq and Iran. At that time, the board included a retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a retired chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, an expert on telecommunications, a nuclear weapons expert, a top professional from the National Security Agency, a noted physicist and assorted others including me. The board met six times each year. Iran and Iraq were always the top items on every agenda. North Korea was considered frequently and other countries, like Somalia and Haiti, were considered from time to time.

PFIAB never took roll calls. The consensus was sent to the White House. On the question of nuclear weapons, some members believed Saddam had a modest program moving slowly towards a weapon. The other half was doubtful that his nuclear program was functioning at all. We did have economic intelligence on Iraq. European diplomats and businessmen informed the CIA that Iraq was in decay. This fact was part of the reason that the doubters formed their opinions.

The only person I know who stated that there was no existing proof that Saddam had chemical weapons was Walter Pincus, formerly of U.S. Sen. Stuart Symington's staff on the Armed Services Committee. Pincus is now a long-time reporter for the Washington Post, specializing in military and intelligence matters. He wrote a story that there was no hard evidence that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons. He asked his editor to run his story on Page 1. The editor said, "Walter, everyone knows that Saddam has chemical weapons. We would look silly publishing such a piece." Finally, it was relegated to a small article on Page 13.

In the months prior to 9-11, we know that the Bush administration focused on missile defense and Iraq. The terrorism Czar Richard Clarke was demoted, and al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden were, in essence, ignored.

Intelligence is not a precise art. In today's troubled world, human intelligence is imperative. Technological intelligence is amazing under certain circumstances. Aerial photography was sufficient to determine that Soviet missiles were about to be placed in Cuba. Aerial photography has become more and more precise. In earlier days, we could photograph a golf course putting green in the U.S.S.R. Then we could photograph the flag on the putting green. Now we can see the golf ball. Osama bin Ladin was identified on the ground at one of his camps. It is not too much of a stretch to say that we could listen to Pope John Paul II going to confession in St. Peter's. In the Cuban crises aerial photography was all the evidence we needed. In Iraq and Iran, human intelligence is vital. In the 1990s PFIAB was informed that we had no human intelligence in Iraq and Iran. We now know that this condition remained the same until we invaded Iraq in 2003.

In Iran unnamed CIA professionals say that we still are bereft of human intelligence. They also say Iran poses an even more dangerous threat than Iraq. Some unnamed CIA sources now say that we still have no human intelligence in Iran. These same sources state that Iran, already on the road to nuclear weapons, is an even greater risk than was Iraq.

Will diplomacy solve the Iran threat? Are we on the verge of another preventive war? Is Iran that next stop on the Axis of Evil?

It is a remote possibility that the next president might seek a use-of-force authority to bomb the scattered nuclear sites. In the current atmosphere, the total lack of credible intelligence could cause Congress to have first and second doubts.

Thomas F. Eagleton of St. Louis is a former U.S. Senator who served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Intelligence Committee. He served on the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board from 1993 to 1999.