Election observations

Some of the best Missouri election observations that have not been widely reported are as follows:

Free-fall of Democrats: Right about now, Missouri Democrats must be wondering whether someone forgot to attach the bungee cord.

As recently as 2001, the Democratic Party controlled five of Missouri's six statewide offices, had a majority in the state House and -- with special elections looming -- had a shot at maintaining control of the state Senate.

Four years later, the free-fall is striking. Republicans now control the governor's office and two other statewide posts, and they boosted their majorities in the House and Senate, where Democrats now control only 77 of 197 seats.

Although most observers considered the Senate a lost cause, it wasn't that long ago when Democrats were predicting gains in the House this year. The thinking went that in a high-turnout presidential election cycle, the Republican freshmen ushered into office by term limits in 2002 would be called to account for tough votes on education and health care.

Agony of defeat: It's no secret that politics is a tough business, but the point was reiterated Tuesday by two candidates who lost.

If you were compiling a list of the most capable politicians in the Capitol, Catherine Hanaway and Claire McCaskill would almost certainly make the short list. Hanaway, a Republican, was the first woman elected House speaker -- reversing in the process decades of Democratic dominance in the lower chamber --and McCaskill, the Democratic state auditor, made history by bouncing Gov. Bob Holden in the August primary.

Both women are smart, well-spoken and politically savvy, and both proved that's not always enough to win. Hanaway lost her race for secretary of state to Robin Carnahan. McCaskill came up short in her bid for governor, although she will remain in her position as state auditor. -- Josh Flory, Columbia Daily Tribune

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Post-election lessons learned and looks ahead: Let's look at the big trends and big lessons from a big Election Day:

Missouri's status as a bright red state shouldn't be a surprise. The state traditionally has been conservative, even when Democrats controlled it.

Looking back, the only thing that separated the GOP from 24 consecutive years of Republican control of the governorship was fate.

In 1992, Mel Carnahan grabbed the state's top political prize only because Republican Bill Webster was bogged down in a federal criminal investigation.

In 2000, Bob Holden won, many believe, only because of a sympathy vote in the wake of the Carnahan plane crash.

The pre-term-limit era, it turns out, gave Democrats a false sense of security. They won through the 1990s because so many of their officeholders were entrenched Democrats with fat campaign war chests who couldn't be knocked off.

With term limits forcing out those incumbents, the GOP has soared in the General Assembly.

Once again, the candidate with the most money isn't necessarily the winning candidate. McCaskill outspent Blunt. Jeanne Patterson swamped Emanuel Cleaver in their race for Congress. Given a choice, though, take the money. The Center for Responsive Politics reports that candidates who spent the most won 96 percent of U.S. House races and 91 percent of U.S. Senate races.

Old conventional wisdom: The Democrats have the best get-out-the-vote strategy.

The new conventional wisdom: The Republicans have the GOTV effort. -- Steve Kraske, The Kansas City Star

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According to the St. Louis Post Dispatch, there were 173,000 straight Democratic ticket voters in St. Louis County. John Kerry had a 200,000-plus margin in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Kansas City combined. George Bush made up 145,000 in Southwest Missouri, which includes Springfield and Joplin. There were 362,000 more votes in 2004 than in the 2000 presidential election (two-thirds of them voted Republican).

Jo Ann Emerson, with 72 percent of the votes cast in the 8th District race for Congress, received the second highest winning percentage in Missouri. (Clay of St. Louis City received 75 percent.)

Bush and Blunt held press conferences the day after the election, and lieutenant governor-elect Peter Kinder has talked with current Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell, been assigned transition office quarters, met with the newly elected leaders (Rod Jetton of the House and Mike Gibbons of the Senate) and is establishing his staff and economic/government bipartisan advisory committee.

I expect the first 100 days of the 2005 Missouri legislative session will be quite active in hearing, discussing and passing legislation for the new governor, Matt Blunt, to consider.

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"If you're lucky enough to have done well, then it's your responsibility to send the elevator back down." -- Jack Lemon

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The average human heart beats 100,000 times a day. No human could design such an instrument.

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"There are only two ways of exerting one's strength. One is pushing. The other is pulling up." -- Booker T. Washington (1856-1915)

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"Success isn't permanent, and failure isn't fatal." -- Mike Ditka, professional football player/coach

Gary Rust is chairman of Rust Communications.