EDUCATION TAX BACKERS HAD BETTER GET CRACKING FOR VOTES

~Correction: Herewith, the analysis provided me by Missouri's highest-ranking Revenooer, the redoubtable Duane Benton (a native of Mountain View, Missouri) who once worked in the gubernatorial campaign of Walkin' Joe Teasdale and served as Congressman Bill Burlison's first summer intern back in 1969:

"The proposed tax change is not the largest in Missouri history. (I rank it seventh).

"The One Cent Proposition C education sales tax, adopted November 2, 1982, will produce about $414,405,144 in fiscal year 1991.

"The One Cent increase in the state sales tax rate in 1963 produces an equal amount of $414,405,144 in FY 1991. Earlier one-cent increases in 1933 and 1937 also generate the identical amount.

"Most significantly, on December 31, 1970, a 50 percent increase in the income tax occurred. In fiscal year 1990, the state collected 2,006,784,807 in individual income tax alone. A 1991 increase equal to the 1970 increase would bring in $1 billion.

"Equally, the 1931 enactment of the modern income tax was a tax change, in 1991 dollars, of $1 billion."

(CORRECTION RAN 6-4-91 PAGE 6A, IN KINDER'S COLUMN)

Educators, and any others who may think that the tax-increase-for-education bill will be easy to pass, had better think again. Remember that we're talking about the largest tax increase in Missouri history, and right now, we've been through a mild recession. (We hope and expect that the recession will not continue through the November vote).

Some days ago, I was at a luncheon meeting of 30 business and professional types here in Cape Girardeau. All were college-educated; some had experience in holding elective office in our state government. It was 72 hours after the legislature had passed the tax-hike-and-education-reform bill, and although not all the details were fully digested, people were focusing on the price tag: $385 million.

The luncheon group that day was a fair cross-section of Cape Girardeau's business and professional community. Almost no one in the room that day besides yours truly thought the education reform and tax measure enjoys any chance of passage. Those who want to persuade Missourians of the need for this package had better get cracking.

These tax hikes will really hit working people, as the saying goes, "where we live." The view I'm hearing from friends and associates is that overwhelming proof will be needed to persuade a skeptical public that the benefits will be as real as their costs.

All of which prompts further reflections. Two weeks ago today, I offered a few preliminary comments on the just-passed education package. In the course of those tentative (and largely positive) remarks, I commented: "A big question: Will teachers' groups support the bill as passed?" If these teachers' groups have offered official comment on the package since then, I've missed it.

The silence of the major statewide teachers' groups continues to be the most astonishing fact of the nearly two weeks since the legislature acted. Bizarre. It's rather as though the U.S. Congress had passed the right-to-life constitutional amendment overturning Roe vs. Wade, and Missouri Citizens for Life could not be persuaded to comment on the development.

Major Missouri business groups, however, are speaking out. They're forthrightly supporting higher taxes on their members in exchange for the major reforms that Governor Ashcroft succeeded in inserting into the bill. Those who accused the governor and business groups of "bluffing" in expressing support for higher taxes if major reforms were included should now apologize. The governor and supportive business groups have demonstrated they were serious; they were honest with legislators and with the public; and now they're acting accordingly endorsing the package in public for all to consider. Whether you accept or reject their arguments, at least we know where they stand.

This week's newsletter from Associated Industries of Missouri (AIM) communicates an endorsement of the package by both AIM and the Missouri Chamber of Commerce. A pertinent excerpt:

"AIM and the Missouri Chamber of Commerce have endorsed the compromise package based on the inclusion of much-needed education reforms such as those outlined in the Missouri Business Alliance for Quality Education report released in January. These reforms represent a much stronger approach than those advanced earlier ... legislation while calling for a proportionate funding mechanism.

"... To fund the education spending, the largest tax increase in the state's history will be decided by voters. The tax financing would come from a percent sales tax increase ($170 million); limiting federal income tax deductions for individuals to $7,500 for single filers and up to $15,000 for married couples ($175 million); an increase in dependent deduction from $400 per person for a loss of $30 million; an increase in the permanent corporate income tax rate, on taxable income over $100,000, from 5 percent to 6 percent ($39 million); a 5 cent cigarette tax increase and a 10 percent tax on smokeless tobacco ($31 million)."

On the other hand, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the indispensable voice of small business, has reserved judgment on the education package the legislature passed. An NFIB communique says they're "hoping to find to find other means of generating revenues earmarked for education."

The NFIB is especially troubled by the limits on deductibility of federal income taxes, and the higher corporate income tax on income over $100,000. "Limiting deductibility to these amounts is a direct attack on small business owners," said Randy Scherr, Missouri director of the NFIB. "As it stands, federal deductibility is oftentimes the difference between breaking even or going in the red. We're not doing small operators or the state any good by cutting even closer to their bottom line."

I repeat: Where are the teachers' groups?

* * * * *

Tuesday, May 21 found voters in Jacksonville, Florida (15th largest city in America) with a term limitation proposal on their ballots. A stunning 82 percent voted to approve the measure.

With this astonishing result, term limits continue to bat a thousand: Ten-for-ten in states (e.g., California, Colorado and Oklahoma) and cities where voters have had a chance to enact them. All votes have occurred this year and last.

During the same week, Colorado's freshman Senator Hank Brown tried to attach term limits for Members of Congress to a campaign finance bill. He lost on a 68-30 vote. 68 votes is one more than would be the minimum required to override a presidential veto. (President Bush favors term limits; during last year's election campaign, Vice President Quayle campaigned for California's victorious term limit proposal).

Surprise: Our political elites in Congress favor a system they've managed to rig for their own benefit, with 98 percent reelection rates.

With this sharp divergence between elite and man-in-the-street opinion, it's clearer than ever what must be done if such measures are to be enacted at the federal level. Ordinary citizens will have to take matters into their own hands and do what many folks are doing in state after state across America: Push a constitutional amendment to limit terms.

* * * * *

This week, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed with a federal appeals court in its decision to throw out the convictions of Lt. Col. Oliver North. Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh has almost nothing to show for the last four and a half years, during which he and his huge staff have been ensconced in some of the most expensive office space in downtown Washington. Cost to taxpayers long ago topped $40 million, with the meter still running.

I warned in this space back in 1988 that problems with immunized congressional testimony would force the setting aside of whatever convictions this unlimited prosecution might obtain against Ollie North.

A real prosecutor, with other cases to fight and limited resources to deploy, would have folded up his tent long ago. Instead, Walsh vows to fight on.

Enough is enough. It's time to say good night, Mr. Walsh.