CAMPAIGN 1993 IS NOW UNDER WAY MAY THE BEST VILLAINS WIN

Just about a year ago, Bill Clinton was in New Hampshire beginning a run for the presidency in the face of enormous obstacles. He labeled himself the "Comeback Kid" who could beat the odds through persuasion and perseverance.

Last week in St. Louis, Bill Clinton opened his second presidential campaign, this one to sell his budget cut/tax program. Once again, he will have to beat the odds. Don't be fooled by the instant polls indicating overwhelming public support for the overall thrust of the Clinton proposal. When the wrecking crews get started zeroing in on this or that specific item in the President's package, the blood will begin to spill.

Every spending item targeted for elimination or reduction has a political constituency determined to preserve it. Every proposed tax hike has group of taxpayers ready to be turned on like the button on the kitchen stove moving from low to medium to hot. Come fall, the odds on 80 percent to 90 percent of Clinton's program surviving are not better than 50-50.

Political campaigns especially those in the United States need proper villains. It isn't enough for a politician to explain his views in rational terms. A "vision thing" may well be insufficient when a president is talking about turning off someone's favorite spending spigot or taking some bucks out of the voters' pocket books.

Here, in "sound bite" form, are some rational arguments that will keep John Q. Citizen's eyes no more than half open: "Resource erosion", "Depleting our private saving's pool", "Fighting the status quo", "Modernizing our infrastructure", "Debt reduction," etc.

Joe Six-Pack's juices just don't flow with these policy wonk phrases. He doesn't bounce out of bed in the morning all excited about "growing the economy" or "reinventing government."

Ultimately, Clinton has to push some hot buttons and narrow his 1993 campaign down to a few opinion-molding basics things that a vast majority of the American people love to hate. Here are some prospects.

Joblessness. That won in 1992; why not a second run in 1993? Most Americans realize that the job market isn't what it used to be for themselves, their children or their grandchildren. Every week, some corporate goliath lays off thousands of workers last week Boeing announced it would eliminate 28,000 jobs (a fifth of its employees). The President has to sell his program as the only way to create a sound economic future with decent jobs today and tomorrow.

Healthcare industry. Even those Americans fortunate enough to have health insurance are fearful of the day they might have less of it or must be without it. People may like their doctors, but they are frightened to death of the bills even the ones they don't have to pay. Once the health care policy details are worked out, Clinton has to sell his program as the only way out of the medical cost nightmare.

Congress, gridlock and special interests. As the 1993 campaign wears on, Clinton will have to dust off the old, reliable beat-up-on-Congress card even though his own party is in control of the House and Senate. As an institution, Congress is less popular than the INternal Revenue Service. If by midsummer, for example, some key senators are blocking the way on essential parts of his program, the President will have to dust off the lyrics to "Gridlock on the Potomac" and "The Lurking Lobbyist Tango."

Campaign 1993 is on may the best villains win.